RandomSleehrat Musings - 20 Hours Later and Counting

Some congrats in order:

• To President-Elect Barack Obama. Nice ring to it, eh?
• To Senator McCain, for giving us a glimpse of the better angels of his nature through some bitter disappointment last evening.
• To Senator Joe Biden for finally getting the right job. He's gonna be a fine VP.
• To Governor Sarah Palin for becoming a cultural icon courtesy of Tina Fey.
• The American people. Makes you feel some faith in the system. And one another.
• To my hometown folks, for soldiering through the Turf Wars.
• To Nostrasleehrat, who appears to have called the election on the nose in the Electoral College a couple of days ago but who recast the map to show Barack with fewer wins. Oh me of little faith.
• To Dottie Foote and Herb Gulatt of Mount Airy, who I trust voted their hopes and not their fears
• To Garland Smith of Mount Airy, for his foresight in predicting the end of days that are clearly upon us all. If liberals threaten to move to Canada -- the whitest country on planet Earth -- when a Republican wins, where will Garland move? Last time I checked, a native African was running South Africa and it costs $55 for a six-pack of Schlitz in Iceland. Danish anyone?

GW Battleground - Final Poll

The GW Battleground poll has been a pretty accurate predictor in the past. Link here for the result.

Key: Obama ticked up from 49% to 50%. McCain is at 44% with 6% undecided. One percent of undecideds breaking to Obama gives him the popular vote.

But does it give him the win? Ask Al Gore.

But first -- get out there and vote!!!!!

Final Picks

Well, my final call has tightened things up a little. Given that NC has 42% early voting and how Kay Hagan is tracking in the polls, I am going to leave that one in Obama's column. Hedging my bets a little, but I am feeling like McCain will pick off Ohio but that Obama will hang onto Pennsylvania.



<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Whassup?!!!! The Best Obama Ad Never Endorsed or Seen!!!!

Recent Obama Ad

I've been waiting for one like this.

Sleehrat Predicts -

Here is my call as of Sunday, November 1 10:30 AM ET. Check back Monday evening for an update as I will review polling data Monday afternoon and make an updated prediction.


<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Nate Silver, Nostradamus of Polls, Sez . ..

Nate Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com, who runs one of the best metapoll sites on the net and is oft interviewed and quoted in the press has this to say about the final landscape and "strategery" for the Obama and McCain campaigns. It gives us something to watch for on Tuesday evening between poll closings, beers and plates of nachos.


This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada.

Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating somewhere between 300-400 electoral votes. The electoral math will matter very little.We can probably assume, however, that IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT), McCain will edge out a victory in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri; put those states in the McCain column for the time being.

Likewise, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa all appear safe for Obama, even in the case of significant tightening. Put those in the Obama column. That leaves our five states in play. The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada
*2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada

That's basically what it comes down to, although I'm sure each campaign would claim that there are a larger number of states in play.*-*

Sorry to get off on such a tangent about this; I wanted to talk, for a change, about something other than whether the POLLS ARE TIGTHENING (!!!) or not. But as to that question, the evidence is again somewhat mixed. Contrary to other recent days, Obama gained ground in the national trackers on average, picking up points in Research 2000, Gallup and Rasmussen. The Zogby that Matt Drudge went on about turned out to be the only poll where he lost ground, while ABC/Post, IPD/TIPP and Hotline held steady. However, our model does perceive about a point's worth of tightening in the state polls. And the Pennslyvania polls have probably tightened by more than one point, although it is important to note that the four polls that show the state in the mid- single digits (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, ARG and Strategic Vision) have all had Republican leans so far this cycle. Pennsylvania is still an extreme long shot for John McCain -- Obama is more likely to win Arizona than McCain the Keystone -- just not quite the long-shot that it had looked like a couple of days ago.

As a final word of warning, proceed cautiously with any polls that were in the field last night. Friday nights are difficult enough to poll, and holidays are difficult enough to poll, but when a Friday night coincides with a holiday (in this case, Halloween), getting an appropriate sample is all but impossible.

In Memoriam, John McCain

Regardless of the outcome on November 4, this fall America lost one of its original, independent political voices as Senator John McCain succumbed to hardrightwingitis.

You may ask, what is hardrightwingitis? It is an insidious disorder, common to Republicans running for public office at a national level, to surrender their principles and common sense to the far right wing of the party in hopes of "solidfying the base."

What makes hardrightwingits a difficult condition to assess is that in some instances its outcome is successful for the afflicted. This happens in times of relative national prosperity and security when elemental symptoms -- such as agreement with anti-abortion, anti-gay, pro-conservative Christian issues -- can position the victim as victor.

In the case of Senator McCain, his bout with hardrightwingits came as the wheels were falling off US prestige and prosperity. He accepted the diagnosis of a team of specialists trained by Karl Rove (aka The Architect) that he must pander to extreme elements of the Party in order to maintain a base of support necessary to win an election. A second opinion would have revealed to the patient that if he were to actually run on his record as one who had collaborated with Russell Feingold on campaign finance reform, Ted Kennedy on immigration and had, in 2000, energized moderate Democrats by standing up to religious extremists (Farrakhan on the left, Falwell on the right), he might win the election and, if not, lose with some measure of dignity.

Perhaps the most fatal move was the selection of untested, unknown Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. A favorite of extreme right leaning pundits from Bob Grant to Rush Limbaugh, Palin revealed herself to be, in short order, a featherweight in a tempest. If Senator McCain had followed his initial instincts -- Sen. Joe Lieberman or former Homeland Security Director and Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge -- for a running mate, he would have made stronger inroads with undecided voters and have positioned himself competitively in key states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Since this posting is being written prior to election day, I do not presume the outcome to necessarily be a poor one for the Arizona Senator. But if he does miraculously effect a Trumanesque comeback and win, he will enter the White House with a reputation severely tarnished by vicious attacks on his opponent, Senator Barack Obama, and with a Vice President in tow who is considered by nearly 6 in 10 Americans to be poorly equipped to take over the Presidency and who, in the waning days of the campaign, distanced herself from Senator McCain on issues and opinions of campaign tactics.

Palin is Now A "Rogue" Candidate Sez CNN

Woo hoo!!! Watching the wheels fly off the Straight Talk Express is better than sitting in the far turn at Daytona.

Check out this article on CNN.com

"Trouble in paradise, my friends. My running mate, and boy I can't wait till the folks in Warshington meet her, is straying off the reservation. She is a maverick, jest like me."

Dottie Foote and Herb Gullatt from Mount Airy NC are Great Americans!

Check this letter, in response to the one below. Folks, this election is creating change.

The letter that appeared in the Mt. Airy News, to the Editor on 10/14/08, from Mr. Garland Smith took me by surprise. I did not think the newspaper would print anything so openly full of spite and prejudice. What a disappointment.

But I would like to reassure Mr. Smith that with Barack Obama, he has nothing to worry about.What we all must be cautious about are the following: ignorance, smear tactics, half truths, lies, racism and irrational fear. Let’s be respectful of everyone’s freedom to vote their conscience. There’s no need to call people dumb or brain washed if they don’t agree with your choice. Mud slinging like that doesn’t do your candidate any good.

Enough already! A little mutual respect will go a long way. Maybe then we can get all the way to election day behaving like thoughtful adults.

Thank you,

Dotty Foote, Mount Airy

And this from Herbert Gullatt:

To the Editor,

No where in my letter (published in The Mount Airy News Oct. 15) did I object to The Mount Airy News right to publish Mr. Smith’s letter nor did I object to Mr. Smith’s right to say what he did.“Free speech exercised both individually and through a free press is a necessity in any country where free people are themselves free.” Theodore Roosevelt 1918

Those who call for the murder of a sitting President or the murder of candidates for that office should not be surprised when the Secret Service knocks on their door as the Secret Service does not take this lightly. If Mr. Smith meant this when he wrote “at all costs” then that is Mr. Smith’s problem.Just as shouting “FIRE” in a crowded theater is not protected speech neither is calling for the assassination of the President or a candidate for that office just ask the Secret Service as they have hauled people to court who made passing threats in a bar.

The McCain/Palin campaign is appealing to the worst elements in our society when they permit people at the rallies to call for the murder of a candidate as neither McCain or Palin have given any objection to this.When you sow the whirlwind you should be prepared to reap the fury that at times comes with it. And that fury will come both from the extremists on the right and the left if and when they get their wish.They know they can not win on the issues so they sling mud. The McCain/Palin campaign themselves have said this and that the only chance they have of winning is to sully Obama character.

Herbert Clayton Gullatt
Senior Chief, U.S. Navy Retired

Why Barack Obama Won't Likely Carry Surry County, North Carolina

Letter to the Editor

Mount Airy, NC News

Obama, the most radical ever to run for president. His election would lead to the destruction of our great country. Obama all his years of life has had relationship with terriost like William Ayers this good next door neighbor. His good friend Louis Farragut. His long Rev. Wright and his support of such groups as Hammas and the Plo who are out to destroy Israel. Obama wouldn’t even wear an American flag pin on his coat until last month.How can any true red blooded American be so dumb, so liberal and confused as to vote for Obama.Obama’s support is basically these young, liberals, 18 to 21 years who have been brain washed by the liberal teachers and professors.

Along with 90% of the blacks of our country are out to support the candidate that will offer and give them anything include government hand outs that we the really hard working true Americans work for.

America must at all cost see to it that Obama and his liberals are never elected to destroy our great country as president.

Garland Smith

Mount Airy

Gee Paw! Fonzie Sez "Ayyyy! Vote for Obama!"

Funny! From My Daughter.

Why Obama Matters

A colleague and friend, whom I highly respect, shared the following video with me. This, ladies and gentlemen, is why the Obama campaign is going to change the way we think about race in this country. Andrew Sullivan says in his Atlantic Monthly blog about this clip:

A pretty amazing speech by the AFL-CIO's Richard Trumka. To see a white union man take on rwant it to: acism this way is very moving. Something truly profound could happen in this election, if we want it to.

The Obama Trifecta

Just finished watching the third and final presidential debate. You know, the one where President Barack Obama sealed the deal with the American people.

I cannot think of another election where, arguably, the debates played to the winning team's advantage. In all three settings, Obama looked cool, calm and collected. Just the kind of guy I want behind the big desk when the market goes down 700 points. Or, comfortable enough in his own skin and with his own cojones to be willing enough to sit down across from a nutcase like Chavez. Or Ahmadenijad. Can ya imagine him giving one of those guys the same, bemused look he lasered McCain with during tonight's debate? Priceless!

What is most impressive is that this guy comes to win. There has been no slacking on Team Obama. No overconfidence. No measuring of the Oval Office drapes. After tonight's win, Candidate Obama is back out and onto the huskings.

And I am confident he will bring that same drive back to the White House come January 20, 2009.

Professor Sam Sez . . .

Well, folks. We are three and a half weeks away from Election Day and being bombarded hourly (I don't think "minutely" is a word) with all kinds of news/op-ed pieces which is very hard for the Sleehster to track and add to Randompolitik.

That said, I think this article by Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium (some say academic think tank, others say pointy-headed liberals in an ivory tower) is worth your reading. Essentially Prof. Wang is telling us:

1. Best Uncle Grumpy and Gidget can do is blunt a blowout by Barack. I think he is thinking "Clinton vs. Dole" territory.
2. Yer pissin' into a hurricane if you think $100 to either campaign is going to make a difference at this point.
3. Focus on the margins -- at this point, House and Senate races are where the action are.

Blast From The Past

Dan Ackroyd, portraying Jimmy Carter on a SNL broadcast in 1980, delivered these words. Someone should forward them to the McCain campaign!

Good evening. On Tuesday, we Americans will have the opportunity to exercise our role as citizens in a free democracy. Yet, only a third of the eligible voters will actually cast ballots. The other two-thirds are, in a sense, very lucky. Because they do not know what's going on.

Last week, I delivered a message on inflation. Since then, the dollar has dropped in value, the stock market has sustained record losses, and the whole sow price index increased 0.9%. In other words, our economic system is screwed, blued and tatooed! We just have to face the fact that there is simply no way to fight inflation in a capital-intensive, highly-technological, conflict-riddled, anything-for-a-thrill world of today.

That's why, tonight, I want you to try to look for, in inflation, an entirely new word: Inflation is our friend.

For example, consider this. In the year 2000, if current trends continue, the average blue-collar annual wage in this country will be $568,000. Think what this inflated world of the future will mean - most Americans will be millionaires. Everyone will feel like a bigshot. Wouldn't you like to own a $4,000 suit, and smoke a $75 cigar, drive a $600,000 car? I know I would!

But what about people on fixed incomes? They have always been the true victims of inflation. That's why I will present to Congress the "Inflation Maintenance Program", whereby the U.S. Treasury will make up any inflation-caused losses to direct tax rebates to the public in cash. Then you may say, "Won't that cost a lot of money? Won't that increase the deficit?" Sure it will! But so what? We'll just print more money! We have the papers, we have the mints.. I can just call up the Bureau of Engraving and say, "Hi! This is Jimmy. Roll out some of them twenties! Print up a couple thousand sheets of those Century Notes!" Sure, all these dollars will cause even more inflation, but who cares? Everyone will be a millionaire!

In my speech last week, I said that America would have to undergo an austerity program, but since this revolutionary new approach welcomes inflation, our economy will be free to grow, and we can spend, spend, spend!

I'm John McCain and I Approved this Video

Keating Economics

Check out this 14 minute documentary about Sen. John McCain and his involvement in the S&L Crisis of the 1980s.

'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.' - George Santayana

One Month to Election Day - What to Watch

Okay, here goes another rare "pure Sleehrat" look at the electoral billiard table.

1. Obama Makes Voter Registration in the right side pocket. Voter turnout is crucial for any election and some of the numbers -- well, hell all of them -- don't look good for the Republicans. According to our friends at the Volkischer Beobachter (aka Fox News): "In Pennsylvania, registered Democrats have grown by 350,000 since 2004. Registered Republicans have declined by 285,000.

In Florida, Democrats have added 130,000 new voters, while GOP has stayed even.
Nevada, Democrats have added 80,000 more voters than Republicans in a state that Mr. Bush won by 20,000 votes last time." The Obama ground game is working voter registration hard, especially in Red States. When Barack said in his 2004 convention address "Yes, we have some gay brothers and sisters in the red states" -- he wasn't kidding. Take THAT Rush!!!!!

2. Obama Makes Campaign Appearances in the right corner pocket. Karl Rove has a pretty simple axiom for running a successful national campaign: the more you can fight your campaign on your opponent's turf, the less he is able to fight on your's. I don't think there is any question that the Obama campaign has Uncle Grumpy on the defensive. Obama is building leads in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico -- all Bush states in '04. So, if you do the electoral math, we could win most -- not all of those -- and cede Pennyslvania and still win the election.

3. McCain Misses Positive Messaging in Left side pocket. McCain has pulled out (left pundits prefer the word "surrender") of Michigan to put resources into Pennsylvania, a Kerry state in 2004 but one where, see above, registered Democrats have grown by 350,000 since 2004. Registered Republicans have declined by 285,000. Michigan is, arguably, the poster child of the declining US economy. THe state led us into recession and more jobs have been lost there over the past few years than any place else. This plays into Obama's hand as portrayng McCain as out of touch and just another politician who will spend his time and money where it counts, instead of where it means something. Country First? Please.

4. McCain Sinks a Difficult Negative Messaging in Right Side Pocket. Between now and November 4, expect McCain to make Tony Rezko and William Ayers both Barack Obama's running mates. Now, I award that shot to a right pocket because, if anything, it assures Uncle Grumpy of a good turnout in Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee -- and any other state he is going to win anyway. A difficult shot because Obama has already begun preemptive advertising that labels the McCain attacks as out of touch with the REAL concerns of working Americans.



5. Obama Sinks an Easy Negative Message in the Left Side Pocket - with help from outside parties. Touche! And he doesn't event have to approve this message.



With a little help from the Democratic National Committee:

George Will on McCain: Not Ready For Prime Time

George Will writes in a recent Washington Post column: "Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama." Will goes on to say; "It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?

Check out the rest here.

In Time for the Holidays - Digital Gidget

Check out this site -- http://interviewpalin.com/






From the description:

This site is a parody. The answers are computer generated based on probabilities calculated from Sarah Palin's actual speech. The Markov chain [hey folks - YOU look it up and figure it out! -- Sleehrat] generated answers are surprisingly close to her actual answers.

Live from Des Moines - Its the Uncle Grumpy Show

Looks like John McCain is NOT a big fan of the Des Moines Register editorial board

Live from the Volkischer Beobachter, Its Sean and Dick!

Watch Dick Morris make Sean Hannity's wheels fall off on this one. While he admits he's voting for McCain, Morris gives Senator Obama his objective due and reads the situation of the debate perfectly: right now, Americans see Wall Street tycoons as more of a threat to national security than Osama Bin Laden.

Letterman - Top Ten Things People Are Asking The McCain Campaign

A Week in Review

What a week!

Check out Frank Rich's Op Ed in today's NY Times. A cogent synopsis of John McCain's failings as a candidate and a leader.

Despite the pundits' view of Friday's debate as a draw, bottom line is that Obama won. Why? He more than held his own with McCain, demonstrating command of his facts, deftly batting down criticisms that Uncle Grumpy lobbed his way and, yes, looking every inch the President that we all need. More importantly, every news group that did polling or ran focus groups on the debated showed that independent voters tacked in Obama's direction. Bad news for McCain who has to win the majority of these voters.

More trouble for McCain. Polling from George Washington University (check it out here) shows that as of 9/26 -- before the debate -- that while McCain leads on dealing with terrorism, Obama leads on the economy. Most of the respondents said that their neighbor fundamentally wouldn't have trouble voting for an African-American candidate. This is key folks -- because that question is really asking the values of the respondent. Race is the elephant (donkey?) in the room and it appears that at this juncture, folks are checking that issue at the door because of concerns about the economy.

Oh yeah . . . almost forgot . . . Sarah Palin went on TV with Katie Couric and in less than 20 minutes passed Dan Quayle for the top spot on Dick Vitale's "All Total Moron VP Superstar" List. Check out the two clips in the post below.

Let's Party Like Its 1988: Back to the Future Baby!

Here's J. Danforth Quayle, Vice President. Check out the quote at 0:52



And here's Sarah Palin -- just a single clip. Compare here response to Quayle's quote at 0:52 above.



Kinda makes this guy look like Reagan.

Whoa - Palin Plays Rope a Dope with Couric . . . or is it the Other Way Around? You Be the Judge

Remember folks. She could be ONE 72 YEAR OLD HEARTBEAT AWAY from the comfy chair in the Oval Office.

Duck!!!!!!!

Hot off the press (after I finished closing a deal on a really nice new guitar off Craigslist) -- John McCain is making noises about ducking Debate #1 with Barack Obama citing his need to be in DC helping to wrap Christmas bonus bailout packages for Wall Street CEOs.

So far, Sen. Obama is not rising to the bait. Actually, the Senator has an excellent point that at a moment like this, the American people need to hear from the next President of the United States about what he will do, since Uncurious George is packin' china and pouring over blueprints for his Presidential library (I can't wait to visit that!).

My two-cents. The ploy will likely solidify Johnny Mac's standing with his core. Obama isnt trying to sway the Volkischer Beobachter (aka Fox TV) crowd to his corner. All the dude has to do is hold the Kerry states and add three. He's got Iowa and Virginia and Colorado are in play. So, from my end CNN and the other networks will call the stunt for what it is and Obama gets a national stage all to himself, with PBS' Jim Lehrer to boot. Might as well roll up a round table, a pitcher of water, Charlie Rose and turn it into a fundraiser!

Let Obama be Bartlet

Thanks to Maureen Dowd, some sage advice to Senator Obama from the most beloved president since FDR - Josiah Bartlet.

A Message from Barack Obama

Check In at the End of Topsy Turvy Week

Well, I've been on the road this week so not a lot of posts since the proverbial excrement impacted the air movement vehicle earlier this week. But certainly the key poll numbers are trending toward Obama for a plethora of reasons, likely chiefly Sen. McCain's inability to articulate what the hell is happening to our economy, much less what he would do about it.

Meanwhile,as I write the Bush Administration is mortaging $1 Trillion (you got it bucko) of our kids' future to bail out a few Wall Street firms that made colossally awful business decisions. Exactly what Reagan Republicans want to see -- the "gummit" stepping in to become significant shareholders in private enterprise. I hope that staunch Republicans have refreshened their swimming skills to ride out the flood of irony that should be engulfing them as we speak!

More to follow. Debate #1 is up on Friday!

A Strategy Update from Plouffe Daddy - September 17 2008

I McCain't Make This Up: Johnny Mac Clearly Knows Something About the Economy that Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and AIG Don't

Update 9/28: Frank Rich has a terrific op-ed in the NY Times. Here's a choice quote:

It was on Sept. 15 — the day after his former idol Alan Greenspan pronounced the current crisis a “once-in-a-century” catastrophe — that McCain reaffirmed for the umpteenth time that the “fundamentals of our economy are strong.” As recently as Tuesday he had not yet even read the two-and-a-half-page bailout proposal first circulated by Hank Paulson last weekend. “I have not had a chance to see it in writing,” he explained. (Maybe he was waiting for it to arrive by Western Union instead of PDF.)

TIME: Michael Grunwald Calls it Like He Sees It

Excellent article on the "elephant in the room" for Barack Obama -- the race issue. Are White independent voters willing to check their bias at the polling place door on November 4?

Watch This -- From our Buds at BraveNewPAC.org

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” - Joseph Goebbels, Nazi Minister of Propaganda

Cheney: "Palin" by Comparison with Sarah Barracuda

Today's NY Times has an article by Jo Becker, Peter Goodman and Michael Powell about Sarah Palin's political appointments and vendettas as Mayor of Wasilla and Governor of Alaska. Earlier this year, Pat Buchanan said that "John McCain makes Dick Cheney look like Gandhi." This article makes our current VP look like Bambi.

DeJa Vu -- Republicans Looking to Party Like its 2004

Feeling like old times folks? Check out Howard Fineman's article from MSNBC about the mistakes the Obama campaign is making.

I generally find that I agree with Fineman's points. That said, a couple of things on my mind.

First, Obama has a grassroots ground game that Kerry didn't in '04. Assuming they can turn out newly registered voters and the the Republican dirty tricks don't prevent too many of them from casting a ballot, then I am not sure how much the polls really tell us -- more than Republican voters, when confronted with an intellegent, young, self-confident African-American candidate will gladly check their brains at the door and vote for an aging American vet who has comprimised every core fiber of this being, including putting a total ditz one 72-year-old heartbeat away from the desk in the Oval Office.

Second, I think Obama's core voters are voting FOR him as opposed to AGAINST McCain. Remember, in '04 a lot (perhaps most) Dems didn't love Kerry as much as we hated Bush. Pollster Scott Rasmussen says election wins are driven by favorables -- that is, no one wins an election by getting folks to vote against the other guy.

Those points made, I agree with Fineman that Team Obama has to get their collective heads back in the game especially while there is time to do it.

News Flash - Palin Finds Iraq/9-11 Link

Speaking at a sendoff ceremony for son Track and his unit, heading for Baghdad and glory, Gov. Sarah Palin fresh from a cramming session with Charlie Gibson makes a link between the September 11 terror attacks and our God-given mission in Iraq:




Too bad Dick Cheney doesn't agree with her:



And, alas, neither does George W. Bush:

Why Sarah Can't Lead

Bob Herbert has a terrific op-ed piece in the September 12 NY Times on the Palin interview with Charlie Gibson. Less an interview, as one wag has put it, and more a tutorial between a rattled freshman and her faculty advisor.

Here's a choice moment.

Sound Familiar?

Quote James Carville: "If You Drag a Hundred Dollar Bill Through a Trailer Park . . . "

I didn't have good graphic to accompany this article about Governor Sarah Palin being ordered by a judge to cease and desist with the harassment of her brother-in-law (the one who used a taser on his 10 year old son). So I'm using this family in a fight on Jerry Springer for now -- until I find something more tasteless.

In the meantime -- here's a big shout out to the Palin Family for putting up with Mom's nonsense. If I were Mr. Palin, I'd be packing Piper, Trig, Bridget, the shotgun-wedding guy and Track on my boat and heading out with the Deadliest Catch fleet to get away from it all. C'mon -- who would you rather hang with: John McCain or Captain Sig?

Uh Oh

Writing this in real time -- literally, this was on CNBC about 5 minutes ago and now its on You Tube.

I think Joe Biden just committed a faux pas. Not that this was unexpected. But c'mon -- he just said that Clinton might have been a better VP pick than him!!!

A Big Unknown

I have been following a lot of the recent rash of polls that have revealed some surprising - and quite frankly -- disturbing trends for the Obama/Biden ticket. Though we have not gotten to the debates (which can be game changers) here is what I am reading:

• Obama appears to be losing votes among White voters. This is a very specific argument that Clinton made in the closing days of the primaries and her large margins in places like West Virginia or Kentucky are certainly a harbinger of this trend.
• Surprisingly, today's CNN Time polling reports that McCain is running strong in the suburbs of Detroit. Certainly the scandal with Mayor Kilpatrick -- an African-American leader -- likely didn't help. And doesn't Sarah Palin have a little of that Michigan "twang" going.
• Obama appears to be building a solid lead in Southwest Virginia (think Norfolk/Newport News) -- sizable African-American population there to be sure, but also a lot of military families (naval bases). But McCain is now running stronger in Norther Virginia, what was once a "bastion" of Obama support.
• McCain has regained some momentum in Missouri, as state that the Dems had hoped to put into play.

So, on paper, we appear to be heading back to the "Kerry/Bush" state divisions that marked the beginning of the campaign, which means that the "O" Team would have to tilt Ohio or Florida or a combination of a couple of smaller states to barely win this thing.

Now for the Big Unknown: new voters. What the press appear to be missing in all of this is the new voters registered by the Obama campaign during the primaries. These are younger and African-American voters - two demographic groups that often get missed during polls.

Now for the hard part: keeping this base energized and getting them to actually turn out at the polls.

Koch on Palin: "She Scares the Hell out of Me"

Ed Koch has endorsed Barack Obama saying Sarah Palin "scares the hell out of me." Koch, a longtime Democrat, has in recent years taking to endorsing the Republican party and its candidates. Although a Koch endorsement of Obama to New Yorkers is like endorsing A-Rod to Yankee fans, the blub from our colorful former mayor is worth a look.

Begala Weights In -- What to Expect Between September 9 and November 4

Paul Begala has an interesting piece on www.cnn.com about what to expect -- minus the unexpected -- between now and election day from both the McCain and Obama camps.

Check it out.

A Four Legged Stool Stands Between Sarah Palin and Learning What it Is that The VP Really Does

Charlie Cook, political consultant and columnist has written a very interesting article on the demographics of this year's presidential contest and how four consituencies hold the key to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. A good, brief read.

RandomPolitik Presents . . . MavericKam. Our First Installments

President McCain will take World Leaders and Geography for $500 . . .



The Fact Maverick Rides Again!


I Will Make Them Famous . . . if I Can Stay Alert Long Enough to Remember Them.

Seven Keys for the Next Seven Weeks

Politico has a very interesting article online today that gives a "50,000 foot" overview of seven keys to the election. Of course, politics are highly unpredictable, but the assertions here seem pretty reasonable to me.

In the meantime, I am nervous that Team Obama doesn't appear to be getting up off their collective asses and firing back at the Republicans, whom I fear are beginning to define the campaign message. Maybe they should heed Sean Connery's advice here:

This Just in from the Gates of Hell (While Waiting for the McCain/Osama Deathmatch)

The Boston Herald has an article today with Dick Cheney's thoughts on Sarah Palin. Worth a quick read.

That Old Feeling

Is it just me who is having that niggling 2004 deja vu feeling this morning? Lessee -- we've got the better candidate, the right platform, running against an incumbent party whose policies are, by and large, unpopular. And their post-convention bounce seems to have erased any momentum from our convention.

Nate Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com posted this interesting take on the Obama campaign's ad strategy.

Why Vote For a Celebrity?

Found this gem on You Tube to share with you all>

Tough Day - Need a Laugh

Well, several polls are showing that the GOP convention has given the Geezer/Gidget ticket a real boost -- leading in the Gallup Poll, tied in Rasmussen, marginally behind now in others.

This link is worth a review and a laugh. Enjoy!

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13213.html

The Maverick Saddles Up

Choosing a Running Mate: 101

The two clips below highlight the thinking in both campaigns about the choice of a running mate. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any video of Sen. McCain talking about his choice so I decided to go with his unofficial campaign advisor, Karl Rove.

Fellow POW Delivers a Ringing Endorsement of Sen. McCain

Karl Rove on Picking an Inexperienced Governor -- a Fair and Balanced Set of Opinions

This is so consistent with . . .

This . . .

Sarah Palin - Energy Czar

From this morning's London Daily Telegraph


The Republican presidential candidate will make his running mate the public face of the country's drive for energy independence, according to a McCain campaign official.
Mr McCain, whose selection of Mrs Palin has electrified Republican supporters, wants to capitalise on her expertise in the oil and gas sector while governor of Alaska. He believes that her record of taking on oil company chiefs will help convince the public that his government would not be in the pocket of energy fat cats, a perception that has damaged George W.Bush's poll ratings.

The move would give Mr McCain political cover to resume widespread domestic drilling for oil, even in areas of environmental fragility.

Mrs Palin backs drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), which Mr McCain has previously opposed. Should he decide to reverse that position he will use Mrs Palin to make the case that it is necessary.

The campaign official said: "The Democrats say that Governor Palin is inexperienced, but she has vast experience in the energy sector. She will be at the forefront of the push for energy independence. She's popular and she's very persuasive." A Republican Party official, who has discussed Mrs Palin's role with members of Mr McCain's team, added: "She can say: 'I'm from Alaska. I know all about this and I support drilling, even in ANWR."

Mr McCain discussed the role Mrs Palin would play in government as well as the election campaign when he held a three-hour getting-to-know-you session two weeks ago.
To assuage angry green activists, the prospective vice president will also be charged with overseeing a dramatic increase in federal support for the development of clean coal and electric car technology, as well as the spread of wind and solar power.

As Governor of Alaska, Mrs Palin oversaw the creation of a $40billion natural gas pipeline, against the wishes of the oil giants, and forced those same companies to relinquish licences to drill on land that they had left idle.

Mr McCain's support for drilling, which Democrats ridicule for offering little hope of quickly lowering fuel prices, enjoys overwhelming support from US voters.
During her speech last week, Mrs Palin said the Alaskan gas pipeline would "help lead America to energy independence".

She added: "The fact that drilling won't solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all. Starting in January, in a McCain-Palin administration, we're going to lay more pipelines... build more nuclear plants... create jobs with clean coal ... and move forward on solar, wind, geothermal and other alternative sources."

Clark Judge, who wrote speeches for President Ronald Reagan and now heads the White House Writers Group, a Washington public affairs company, said such an appointment would be a logical use of Mrs Palin's expertise and record of standing up to special interests.
"No one has more experience of getting oil out of the ground and to the market than Sarah Palin," he said. "It is the issue that most distinctively divides the two parties and it is one that has proved popular for Senator McCain.

"No political figure in the US has more experience of taking on privilege and vested interests than Sarah Palin."

Finding a substantial role for Mrs Palin is just one of Mr McCain's plans for government. Campaign officials say that Joe Lieberman, the independent democrat who spoke at the Republican convention on Tuesday night, has been promised a job in Mr McCain's cabinet.
Mr Lieberman is pencilled in to become Secretary of State or Defence Secretary in what insiders say will be a "government of national unity on foreign affairs".

Mr McCain has been seriously considering naming senior cabinet posts before the election, to emphasise the breadth and experience of his team and demonstrate that he plans to reach across the political aisle.

You Tell, 'Em Pat

Nixon/Reagan communications guru Pat Buchanan weighs in on Obama's Speech -- remember that event?

Imagine the McCain White House

President McCain tries to broker a peace between the Dems and Republicans. Later, coming in from a hard day in the West Wing, he and Cindy talk about the difficulties of life in the White House.

Sarah Palin at Church -- Praise the Lord and Pass the Pipeline

Dr. Phil(good) Speaks Tonight

Market Close as of 5:16 pm ET, September 04
Dow -344.65 (-2.99%)

Well, this is the setup for Johnny Mac's speech tonight. He'll spend a lot of time getting us to cogitate about how Osama Bin Laden wants to blow me up in my place of work (I work 3 blocks from the NY Stock Exchange) but forget that my 401K is being detonated by a war that is bleeding $10 Billion (where's Carl Sagan when I need him!) each month.

Look, I don't bear Sen. McCain any personal animosity. I have a lot of respect for his personal courage and I dont think there is anyone in DC (including Obama) that could carry his shoes when it comes to the individual courage department. But lets face it -- he's sold his soul to the very right wing devils he thundered against during the 2000 primaries. And for that, I don't respect him very much at all.

Here is some Double Talk Express with the Late Great Tim Russert

All in Agreement with Mayor Palin on Book Bans, Raise Your Hand

From today's Boston Herald, an article from the Anchorage Daily News.

WASILLA -- Back in 1996, when she first became mayor, Sarah Palin asked the city librarian if she would be all right with censoring library books should she be asked to do so.
According to news coverage at the time, the librarian said she would definitely not be all right with it. A few months later, the librarian, Mary Ellen Emmons, got a letter from Palin telling her she was going to be fired. The censorship issue was not mentioned as a reason for the firing. The letter just said the new mayor felt Emmons didn’t fully support her and had to go.

Emmons had been city librarian for seven years and was well liked. After a wave of public support for her, Palin relented and let Emmons keep her job.

It all happened 12 years ago and the controversy long ago disappeared into musty files. Until this week. Under intense national scrutiny, the issue has returned to dog her. It has been mentioned in news stories in Time Magazine and The New York Times [NYT] and is spreading like a virus through the blogosphere.

The stories are all suggestive, but facts are hard to come by. Did Palin actually ban books at the Wasilla Public Library?

Find out if she did here http://news.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1117009&srvc=2008campaign&position=6

Why Gidget Can't Count

From NBC News:

ST. PAUL, Minn. -- Mike Huckabee made the claim that Palin got more votes running for mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, than Joe Biden got running for president of the United States. For the record, Joe Biden got 79,754 total votes in the Democratic primaries.

As of the 2000 census, the population of Wasilla was 5,469. It has been reported at currently more than 9,000.That would mean, conservatively, the entire town of Wasilla would have had to have had a 100% turnout for nine years at 9,000 to top Biden's primary numbers.

The Word from Plouffe Daddy!

From David Plouffe to Barack's supporters:

Both Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin specifically mocked Barack's experience as a community organizer on the South Side of Chicago more than two decades ago, where he worked with people who had lost jobs and been left behind when the local steel plants closed.

Let's clarify something for them right now.

Community organizing is how ordinary people respond to out-of-touch politicians and their failed policies.

And it's no surprise that, after eight years of George Bush, millions of people have found that by coming together in their local communities they can change the course of history. That promise is what our campaign has been about from the beginning.Throughout our history, ordinary people have made good on America's promise by organizing for change from the bottom up.

Community organizing is the foundation of the civil rights movement, the women's suffrage movement, labor rights, and the 40-hour workweek. And it's happening today in church basements and community centers and living rooms across America.Meanwhile, we still haven't gotten a single idea during the entire Republican convention about the economy and how to lift a middle class so harmed by the Bush-McCain policies.

It's now clear that John McCain's campaign has decided that desperate lies and personal attacks -- on Barack Obama and on you -- are the only way they can earn a third term for the Bush policies that McCain has supported more than 90 percent of the time.

Taking it Easy with Dr. King

Did I hear Gov. Gidget say that being a small town mayor is "like being a community organizer -- but with actual responsibilities?"

And all these years I've been under the impression that Dr. King . . . or Ralph Reed for that matter . . . had real jobs.

Well, let's give her her due. Being Mayor of Wasilla, AK (pop. 9000) involves some actual responsibilities. Indeed, you have to manage a budget. Easy to do if you take your neighbor's tax money and use it to hire a lobbyist. I am sure Dr. King would have hired a lobbyist to help his cause -- except for the fact that J. Edgar Hoover had a little stronger voice in DC than he did.

And being Mayor of Wasilla meant you had to march in those holiday parades. Tough in an Alaska winter with the snow and ice pelting you. Certainly not as easy as marching across a bridge on a nice day -- with batons and bullets pelting you.

Hey, where do I sign up? I'd relish a cushy job like that!

Big Night for Governor Gidget

Some thoughts about tonight's upcoming speech from Gov. Sarah Palin at the GOP Convention.

First, I expect that she will include a gracious thank you for all Americans for standing by her and her family at a difficult time. I hope she especially thanks the NY Post -- that bastion of conservative common sense -- for outing the father of her 17 year old daughter's child in this morning' paper. Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes' family values are truly heartwarming. Update: no mention of the controversies. Her speechwriters handled this pretty deftly.

Second, expect a call out to Hillary but this time without the catcalls. Rest assured the floor generals in Minneapolis have prepped the crowd to cheer for Sen. Clinton -- in contrast to the boos that she got in Dayton on the "18 million cracks in the glass ceiling." Update: no Hillary mention. Good move on the speechwriters' part - don't want to diminish Gidget.

Third, expect her to list every maverick moment in her political career. Like the time she insisted on forcing the Elks to use Match Light charcoal vs. the hardwood coals at the Wasilla Caribou Day celebration. Update: Convincing mentions of taking on the big oil interests, Bridge to Nowhere. Too bad some if it wasn't true.

Fourth, don't expect her to mention the words "trooper," "pregnant," "lobbyist," "free-Alaska," "carwash," "Ted Stevens," "I was for the Bridge to Nowhere before I was against it," "Russia is my naughty neighbor," and "global warming is an act of a vengeful God interceding at the behest of Ralph Reed and James Dobson to wipe this planet clean except for a secret ark of true-believers living in a commune 55 miles north of Anchorage." Update: She raised the Bridge, but not her prior support of it. And she acknowledged that Russia has oil and gas --- and can be a little naughty with it.

Oughta be a hell of a good show. I'll check back in post speech with some updates. Update: Damn! No pantsuit.

(Lame) DUCK!!!!!!!

Thanks to Hurricane Gustav, John McCain got his wish -- putting a half a continent between himself and W. The fizzling storm in the Gulf Coast provided ample cover for Bush to duck the GOP's dwindled affair in Minneapolis, opting to ride out the storm from the cozy confines of the White House.

What might be missed by the media is that, according to my exhaustive research (okay -- 10 minutes on Google), Bush appears to be the first sitting president to skip his party's convention since Lyndon Johnson. Hmmm . . . Texas politician, accidental president, unpopular war . . .

Anyway, what we know is that Bush remains popular with many elements on the GOP right. Do they interpret an 8-minute speech as "damnation with faint praise?" Do they see a repudiation of an 8-year agenda that has saddled our nation with crippling debt, an alarming loss of world prestige, and a government eviscerated by the appointment of unqualified cronies ("Yer doin' a heckuva job, Brownie!")?

Looking forward to the Palin speech tonight. For my part, I am not happy with the way the media has jumped on the "Bristol is pregnant" news. And this is the right wing media, folks. Although, they are fully reporting the story -- to the point where the NY Post outed the father by name -- it is being couched in terms of how "awful the Dems are to raise such an issue."

An Obama Bounce at Last?

Hell yes! We may have the damn Yankees . . . er, Republicans on the run! Go check out Nate at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ for some good analysis of the numbers.

Nate sez:

A large number of national polls have come out within the past 24-48 hours, most of which had conducted a survey close enough to the beginning of the Democratic convention to provide for a direct comparison.

These polls show Obama having gained between 2 and 8 points since before the convention began, or an average of 4.4 points. Although this is slightly below the average convention bounce of 6 points, it is a pretty reasonable result considering that the Republicans had named their VP candidate immediately following the Democratic convention, a circumstance which had never occurred before. Moreover, the internals of these polls show Obama gaining ground among Clinton supporters, a group of votes that John McCain is likely to have a difficult time getting back.(Note: I have not included the Zogby Interactive poll in the survey above -- this was the same poll that had Obama winning Arizona, and winning North Carolina by 8 points. But it is "officially" included for purposes of our model).

Still, it is imperative for Democrats not to get too giddy. A bounce is usually just a bounce, and the Republicans will have three nights of rebuttal tonight through Thursday to attempt to generate some momentum of their own. The Republicans rallied the base with the selection of Sarah Palin; having done so, they need to find messaging during their convention that will appeal to moderates and independents.
There's More...

-- Nate at 1:41 PM 163 Comments...

How Many Ways Can the GOP Duck a Losing Convention? The Answer, McCain, Is Blowing in the Rain

Adam Nagourney writes in today's NY Times:

Mr. McCain and his advisers did not waste a minute in suggesting that his decision to scale back the festivities was evidence of the fact that Mr. McCain, given the choice between doing what is best for him and doing what is best for his country, did what was best for the country. (Even before the storm was on the radar screen, Mr. McCain’s advisers were planning to set that up as one of the big McCain-Obama contrasts.)

Even as convention organizers spent he weekend debating what to do as the storm’s approached, Mr. McCain went on television to announce that he was thinking of suspending the convention. He then flew to Mississippi for a tour of storm preparations and a news conference. And his aides suggested that he might dispense with coming here at all – remember Country First? – and address the gathering through a video link-up.
In short, he managed to control the day – and in the process, pushed the memory of Mr. Obama’s convention just a little more into the distance.

Coming in here, Mr. McCain was understandably concerned that his acceptance speech in the arena here on Thursday would be compared against the one Mr. Obama delivered last week in Denver. Whatever Mr. McCain’s strengths as a candidate, delivering compelling speeches to big audiences is not one of them. The storm might have done Mr. McCain a favor: Not only does it take a little pressure off of him, it gives him a chance to talk about something that has always been a weak suit: Domestic issues. And it provides him an opportunity to accomplish what is one his toughest tasks here: To distance himself from President Bush at a convention where Mr. Bush continues to be popular.

Finally, as has been frequently remarked, the storm accomplished something that Mr. McCain’s advisers could not: Disinvite President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney from speaking, at least on Monday night. Mr. McCain’s advisers had done what they would to lesson the impact of those speeches – they were slated to speak on Labor Day night, Mr. Cheney was to have spoken well before prime time, and Mr. McCain made sure he was nowhere near St. Paul when Mr. Bush took the stage – but they had long been resigned to the fact that they were handing the Democrats a gift.

Like a Hurri-McCain

Writing in today's New York Post, Rich Lowry offers this interesting take on the McCain/GOP response to Gustav: (http://www.nypost.com/seven/09012008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/a_perfect_storm_126979.htm?page=0)

So McCain, even though he's a mere presidential candidate, traveled to Mississippi to get a briefing from Gulf Coast governors and give as much of an impression of being a hands-on manager as he could as someone with no responsibility. McCain feels compelled to do everything he can to act like the un-Bush prior to the storm's landfall.

In pure political terms, Gustav probably freezes the race. With the Palin announcement on Friday, McCain appears to have capped Obama's bounce. The Democrat had been out to an 8-point lead in the Gallup tracking poll at the end of last week, but was back down to 6 yesterday. Now, unable to attack Obama at all or as harshly as they would've otherwise these next two days, Republicans lose the opportunity to drag his lead down further.

My take on the situation is that Gustav gives the Republicans four golden ops this week:

1. Bush and Cheney are sidelined and don't have to publicly make the case for why their administration was a success and that Johnny Mac deserves to pick up the torch. Update - Bush punted and spoke for 8 minutes by satellite
2. Cindy McCain and Laura Bush will speak Monday evening, reinforcing the GirlPower theme that the GOP has embraced since last Thursday morning when McCain picked Palin Update - low key talk by Cindy and Laura about helping Gustav refugees. Nice touch. But Laura's doesn't have to stand by her man.
3. McCain is now saying he may speak to the convention via satellite from the Gulf Coast. McCain is a notoriously poor orator in front of large crowds and speaking directly to a camera will represent him in a better light. Update - Gus fizzled, Johnny Mac's in da house
4. Palin will likely speak at the convention, but doesn't she look like McCain's granddaughter when she isn't standing next to him? Look for the pantsuit -- and expect her to lose the hoop earrings.

So, at worst the GOP freezes the election for a week. I heard a pundit say recently that a presidential campaign is a matter of winning weeks -- if you win more than the other guy, then you get to be president. Blunting Obama's convention with Palin, freezing the week by limiting exposure and damage from Minneapolis suggest that the GOP is settling in for a classic bout of Ali "rope a dope" -- get the Dems to go on the attack, show their hand and tack in a direction that uses their strengths against them.

And if, like me, you see strings extending upward to the pudgy hand of Karl Rove . . .

More on Palin from the RandomPolitik Fair and Balanced Department

Here is John Podhoretz writing about the Sarah Palin pick for Commentary Magazine online, August 31, 2008.

The twist-yourself-in-knots-to-oppose-Palin-on-grounds-of-inexperience exercise being indulged in by those otherwise ecstatic about Barack Obama and indifferent to his lack of experience is truly astounding to behold. It is leading them into some fascinating mistakes. For example, Andrew Sullivan – who is quickly displacing David Gergen as the most ideologically elastic person in the annals of recent history — this morning: “It’s the most irresponsible decision by any leading presidential candidate since Bush picked Quayle.”

The thing is, if you were going by “experience” as your guide, Dan Quayle was eminently qualified to be president according to the standards of our time, at least. He had been elected twice to the Senate and once to the House. He had drafted major domestic-policy legislation on job retraining, and was a leading light on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Quayle had served twelve years in Washington, which is what led to him accurately saying in debate that he had the same level of experience as John F. Kennedy when Kennedy was elected president (the line that set Lloyd Bentsen up to say, “Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.)

The problem with Quayle wasn’t that his resume was lousy. It wasn’t. He was, perhaps, the most politically accomplished 41 year-old in the United States at the time. It was that his behavior — first in his introductory appearance as Veep and then with the malapropisms that dogged him throughout his tenure in the White House — made him seem like a lightweight, and thereby called his judgment into question.

Judgment, comportment, the largeness that seems necessary to hold high office without questionable baggage — these are the qualities that matter. There are, recall, no Constitutional qualifications to occupy the presidency other than being 35 years of age and a native-born American. It is voters who determine the qualifications of their president, which is why having an arguments over experience is the sort of thing that delights those of us who spend our time traveling to conferences in other countries and reading foreign-policy journals, but means absolutely nothing to voters. Nor should it. If it did, Richard Holbrooke might be installed as president, or Bob Kagan.

Palin will be a failed pick if her conduct between now and November 4 reveals that she does not have the judgment to be a heartbeat away; that her comportment is not what we would wish of our leaders; and that she does not seem large enough for the office. A great many things will go into determining all of those things, as they are right now with Barack Obama — and, incidentally, John McCain, who has every qualification for the presidency one could imagine except that he hasn’t won an election for it yet.

The effort to pre-determine her unfitness is not only a losing proposition; there is something fundamentally foolish, about it. Even un-American, in the sense that it suggests rule by wonk rather than popular fiat. Ask Bill Clinton, who tried his best to make the case against Barack Obama and then stood on stage on Wednesday night explaining to America that people were saying about Barack Obama just what they had said about him, Bill Clinton, 16 years ago. That is what interesting elections do.

Governor Gidget's Mother (In-Law) Knows Best

In today's NY Daily News, Faye Palin admits that "she enjoys hearing Barack Obama speak, and still hasn't decided which way she'll vote." Says Palin, "I'm not sure what she brings to the ticket other than she's a woman and a conservative. Well, she's a better speaker than McCain," Faye Palin said with a laugh. "People will say she hasn't been on the national scene long enough. But I believe she's a quick study."

Read the full article here http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republican_race/2008/08/30/2008-08-30_sarah_palins_motherinlaw_uncertain_about.html

Gloomy Gus Threatens to Rain on the Parade

Well, its not only the Fox News (aka Völkischer Beobachter -- remember the Nazi newspaper "We Report, We Decide") pundits that are blowing hard after a topsy-turvy 48 hours since the Palin announcement. Looks like Hurricane Gustav is barrelling pell mell for the Gulf Coast in an eerie reminder of Katrina three years ago (almost to the day).

Kinda makes you think for a moment about whether there is another hand in all of this. So, without further adieu, my two cents from both sides of the equation.

God is a Democrat

Gustav will hit the Gulf Coast wreaking havoc and, despite Shrub's best effort to be on the ground, we will see Homeland Security botch the job yet again. This reinforces the "
McCain is Bush III" arguement.

God is a Republican

Gustav has already created three great ops for the GOP. One, Bush and Cheney get a pass on attending the convention and therefore do not speak -- and I for one was dying of curiosity as to how the planners were going to distance Bush from McCain. Two, Bush gets to actually look Presidential. Three, days before the convetion begins, McCain and Palin (The Geezer and Gidget) are on the ground down in the Gulf Coast while Obama and Biden are trolling for votes in Ohio.

Rush Sez Vote for Governor Babe

From http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/

Rush Limbaugh Show - February 28, 2008
BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Julie in Kodiak, Alaska.

CALLER: Good morning, Rush.

RUSH: Hi.

CALLER: Mega dittos from the last frontier, where the environment and the isolation creates naturally independent, strong, and conservative minds.

RUSH: Thank you very much. I like that.

CALLER: I was calling today because I heard on our statewide news that one of the running mates for McCain being considered would be our governor from the great state of Alaska.RUSH: Talked about this I think yesterday or the day before.

CALLER: Yeah. I think that it would create quite the paradox for your Drive-By Media. Our governor, Sarah Palin, is intellectual, she is --

RUSH: How do you pronounce her last name?

CALLER: Palin.

RUSH: Sarah Palin. Okay.

CALLER: Yep. She's been heralded throughout the state as being personable, likable, intelligent, strong, and conservative. And she crosses over from conservative to liberalism not in thought, but because she stands by what she believes in. And, surprisingly enough, she has been at the forefront of ethics reform in our great state --

RUSH: Yeah, plus she's a housewife, before that, she's a babe. I saw a picture.

CALLER: (laughing)

RUSH: Well, it's undeniable.

CALLER: Well, it is undeniable, and that's why the paradox is there for me. I think that because she's intelligent, number one, conservative maybe number one also, but she is photogenic, she is likable, she is engaging. When you meet her, she is interested in you, she speaks well.

RUSH: By the way, wait a second. I'm not diminishing any of those things by pointing out that she's a babe.

CALLER: Oh, no, no, no.

RUSH: The babe is the icing on the cake aspect, something the Democrats can't claim on their side.

CALLER: Exactly, especially when the highest Democrat that you can speak of is Mrs. Bill Clinton.

RUSH: You said it, not I. I just advanced the theory.

CALLER: Well, I can tell you that Governor Palin doesn't have to lift her chin up to 12 o'clock to get a good photo of her.

RUSH: I just love you. I love you, Julie. I love listening to women talk about other women like this.

CALLER: I am not berating Mrs. Bill Clinton, I am just --

RUSH: No, of course not. You are elevating Madam Palin.

CALLER: (laughing) Exactly.

RUSH: Absolutely.

CALLER: She can't take a bad picture not even from the back end.

RUSH: (laughing) She can't take a bad picture even from the back end. All of which you say is true. Her name has been thrown up there. She has four kids, I think she's 42 years old, very conservative. I don't know how serious it is, but her name has been thrown in the hopper out there. Look, Julie, I'm glad you called. Thanks much.