A Big Unknown

I have been following a lot of the recent rash of polls that have revealed some surprising - and quite frankly -- disturbing trends for the Obama/Biden ticket. Though we have not gotten to the debates (which can be game changers) here is what I am reading:

• Obama appears to be losing votes among White voters. This is a very specific argument that Clinton made in the closing days of the primaries and her large margins in places like West Virginia or Kentucky are certainly a harbinger of this trend.
• Surprisingly, today's CNN Time polling reports that McCain is running strong in the suburbs of Detroit. Certainly the scandal with Mayor Kilpatrick -- an African-American leader -- likely didn't help. And doesn't Sarah Palin have a little of that Michigan "twang" going.
• Obama appears to be building a solid lead in Southwest Virginia (think Norfolk/Newport News) -- sizable African-American population there to be sure, but also a lot of military families (naval bases). But McCain is now running stronger in Norther Virginia, what was once a "bastion" of Obama support.
• McCain has regained some momentum in Missouri, as state that the Dems had hoped to put into play.

So, on paper, we appear to be heading back to the "Kerry/Bush" state divisions that marked the beginning of the campaign, which means that the "O" Team would have to tilt Ohio or Florida or a combination of a couple of smaller states to barely win this thing.

Now for the Big Unknown: new voters. What the press appear to be missing in all of this is the new voters registered by the Obama campaign during the primaries. These are younger and African-American voters - two demographic groups that often get missed during polls.

Now for the hard part: keeping this base energized and getting them to actually turn out at the polls.