Like a Hurri-McCain

Writing in today's New York Post, Rich Lowry offers this interesting take on the McCain/GOP response to Gustav: (http://www.nypost.com/seven/09012008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/a_perfect_storm_126979.htm?page=0)

So McCain, even though he's a mere presidential candidate, traveled to Mississippi to get a briefing from Gulf Coast governors and give as much of an impression of being a hands-on manager as he could as someone with no responsibility. McCain feels compelled to do everything he can to act like the un-Bush prior to the storm's landfall.

In pure political terms, Gustav probably freezes the race. With the Palin announcement on Friday, McCain appears to have capped Obama's bounce. The Democrat had been out to an 8-point lead in the Gallup tracking poll at the end of last week, but was back down to 6 yesterday. Now, unable to attack Obama at all or as harshly as they would've otherwise these next two days, Republicans lose the opportunity to drag his lead down further.

My take on the situation is that Gustav gives the Republicans four golden ops this week:

1. Bush and Cheney are sidelined and don't have to publicly make the case for why their administration was a success and that Johnny Mac deserves to pick up the torch. Update - Bush punted and spoke for 8 minutes by satellite
2. Cindy McCain and Laura Bush will speak Monday evening, reinforcing the GirlPower theme that the GOP has embraced since last Thursday morning when McCain picked Palin Update - low key talk by Cindy and Laura about helping Gustav refugees. Nice touch. But Laura's doesn't have to stand by her man.
3. McCain is now saying he may speak to the convention via satellite from the Gulf Coast. McCain is a notoriously poor orator in front of large crowds and speaking directly to a camera will represent him in a better light. Update - Gus fizzled, Johnny Mac's in da house
4. Palin will likely speak at the convention, but doesn't she look like McCain's granddaughter when she isn't standing next to him? Look for the pantsuit -- and expect her to lose the hoop earrings.

So, at worst the GOP freezes the election for a week. I heard a pundit say recently that a presidential campaign is a matter of winning weeks -- if you win more than the other guy, then you get to be president. Blunting Obama's convention with Palin, freezing the week by limiting exposure and damage from Minneapolis suggest that the GOP is settling in for a classic bout of Ali "rope a dope" -- get the Dems to go on the attack, show their hand and tack in a direction that uses their strengths against them.

And if, like me, you see strings extending upward to the pudgy hand of Karl Rove . . .