Wednesday, November 5, 2008

RandomSleehrat Musings - 20 Hours Later and Counting

Some congrats in order:
  • To President-Elect Barack Obama. Nice ring to it, eh?
  • To Senator McCain, for giving us a glimpse of the better angels of his nature through some bitter disappointment last evening.
  • To Senator Joe Biden for finally getting the right job. He's gonna be a fine VP.
  • To Governor Sarah Palin for becoming a cultural icon courtesy of Tina Fey.
  • The American people. Makes you feel some faith in the system. And one another.
  • To my hometown folks, for soldiering through the Turf Wars.
  • To Nostrasleehrat, who appears to have called the election on the nose in the Electoral College a couple of days ago but who recast the map to show Barack with fewer wins. Oh me of little faith.
  • To Dottie Foote and Herb Gulatt of Mount Airy, who I trust voted their hopes and not their fears
  • To Garland Smith of Mount Airy, for his foresight in predicting the end of days that are clearly upon us all. If liberals threaten to move to Canada -- the whitest country on planet Earth -- when a Republican wins, where will Garland move? Last time I checked, a native African was running South Africa and it costs $55 for a six-pack of Schlitz in Iceland. Danish anyone?

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

GW Battleground - Final Poll

The GW Battleground poll has been a pretty accurate predictor in the past. Link here for the result.

Key: Obama ticked up from 49% to 50%. McCain is at 44% with 6% undecided. One percent of undecideds breaking to Obama gives him the popular vote.

But does it give him the win? Ask Al Gore.

But first -- get out there and vote!!!!!

Final Picks

Well, my final call has tightened things up a little. Given that NC has 42% early voting and how Kay Hagan is tracking in the polls, I am going to leave that one in Obama's column. Hedging my bets a little, but I am feeling like McCain will pick off Ohio but that Obama will hang onto Pennsylvania.

<p><strong>><a href=''>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Monday, November 3, 2008

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Recent Obama Ad

I've been waiting for one like this.

Sleehrat Predicts -

Here is my call as of Sunday, November 1 10:30 AM ET. Check back Monday evening for an update as I will review polling data Monday afternoon and make an updated prediction.

<p><strong>><a href=''>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Nate Silver, Nostradamus of Polls, Sez . ..

Nate Silver at, who runs one of the best metapoll sites on the net and is oft interviewed and quoted in the press has this to say about the final landscape and "strategery" for the Obama and McCain campaigns. It gives us something to watch for on Tuesday evening between poll closings, beers and plates of nachos.

This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada.

Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating somewhere between 300-400 electoral votes. The electoral math will matter very little.We can probably assume, however, that IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT), McCain will edge out a victory in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri; put those states in the McCain column for the time being.

Likewise, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa all appear safe for Obama, even in the case of significant tightening. Put those in the Obama column. That leaves our five states in play. The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada
*2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada

That's basically what it comes down to, although I'm sure each campaign would claim that there are a larger number of states in play.*-*

Sorry to get off on such a tangent about this; I wanted to talk, for a change, about something other than whether the POLLS ARE TIGTHENING (!!!) or not. But as to that question, the evidence is again somewhat mixed. Contrary to other recent days, Obama gained ground in the national trackers on average, picking up points in Research 2000, Gallup and Rasmussen. The Zogby that Matt Drudge went on about turned out to be the only poll where he lost ground, while ABC/Post, IPD/TIPP and Hotline held steady. However, our model does perceive about a point's worth of tightening in the state polls. And the Pennslyvania polls have probably tightened by more than one point, although it is important to note that the four polls that show the state in the mid- single digits (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, ARG and Strategic Vision) have all had Republican leans so far this cycle. Pennsylvania is still an extreme long shot for John McCain -- Obama is more likely to win Arizona than McCain the Keystone -- just not quite the long-shot that it had looked like a couple of days ago.

As a final word of warning, proceed cautiously with any polls that were in the field last night. Friday nights are difficult enough to poll, and holidays are difficult enough to poll, but when a Friday night coincides with a holiday (in this case, Halloween), getting an appropriate sample is all but impossible.