One Month to Election Day - What to Watch

Okay, here goes another rare "pure Sleehrat" look at the electoral billiard table.

1. Obama Makes Voter Registration in the right side pocket. Voter turnout is crucial for any election and some of the numbers -- well, hell all of them -- don't look good for the Republicans. According to our friends at the Volkischer Beobachter (aka Fox News): "In Pennsylvania, registered Democrats have grown by 350,000 since 2004. Registered Republicans have declined by 285,000.

In Florida, Democrats have added 130,000 new voters, while GOP has stayed even.
Nevada, Democrats have added 80,000 more voters than Republicans in a state that Mr. Bush won by 20,000 votes last time." The Obama ground game is working voter registration hard, especially in Red States. When Barack said in his 2004 convention address "Yes, we have some gay brothers and sisters in the red states" -- he wasn't kidding. Take THAT Rush!!!!!

2. Obama Makes Campaign Appearances in the right corner pocket. Karl Rove has a pretty simple axiom for running a successful national campaign: the more you can fight your campaign on your opponent's turf, the less he is able to fight on your's. I don't think there is any question that the Obama campaign has Uncle Grumpy on the defensive. Obama is building leads in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico -- all Bush states in '04. So, if you do the electoral math, we could win most -- not all of those -- and cede Pennyslvania and still win the election.

3. McCain Misses Positive Messaging in Left side pocket. McCain has pulled out (left pundits prefer the word "surrender") of Michigan to put resources into Pennsylvania, a Kerry state in 2004 but one where, see above, registered Democrats have grown by 350,000 since 2004. Registered Republicans have declined by 285,000. Michigan is, arguably, the poster child of the declining US economy. THe state led us into recession and more jobs have been lost there over the past few years than any place else. This plays into Obama's hand as portrayng McCain as out of touch and just another politician who will spend his time and money where it counts, instead of where it means something. Country First? Please.

4. McCain Sinks a Difficult Negative Messaging in Right Side Pocket. Between now and November 4, expect McCain to make Tony Rezko and William Ayers both Barack Obama's running mates. Now, I award that shot to a right pocket because, if anything, it assures Uncle Grumpy of a good turnout in Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee -- and any other state he is going to win anyway. A difficult shot because Obama has already begun preemptive advertising that labels the McCain attacks as out of touch with the REAL concerns of working Americans.



5. Obama Sinks an Easy Negative Message in the Left Side Pocket - with help from outside parties. Touche! And he doesn't event have to approve this message.



With a little help from the Democratic National Committee: