An Obama Bounce at Last?

Hell yes! We may have the damn Yankees . . . er, Republicans on the run! Go check out Nate at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ for some good analysis of the numbers.

Nate sez:

A large number of national polls have come out within the past 24-48 hours, most of which had conducted a survey close enough to the beginning of the Democratic convention to provide for a direct comparison.

These polls show Obama having gained between 2 and 8 points since before the convention began, or an average of 4.4 points. Although this is slightly below the average convention bounce of 6 points, it is a pretty reasonable result considering that the Republicans had named their VP candidate immediately following the Democratic convention, a circumstance which had never occurred before. Moreover, the internals of these polls show Obama gaining ground among Clinton supporters, a group of votes that John McCain is likely to have a difficult time getting back.(Note: I have not included the Zogby Interactive poll in the survey above -- this was the same poll that had Obama winning Arizona, and winning North Carolina by 8 points. But it is "officially" included for purposes of our model).

Still, it is imperative for Democrats not to get too giddy. A bounce is usually just a bounce, and the Republicans will have three nights of rebuttal tonight through Thursday to attempt to generate some momentum of their own. The Republicans rallied the base with the selection of Sarah Palin; having done so, they need to find messaging during their convention that will appeal to moderates and independents.
There's More...

-- Nate at 1:41 PM 163 Comments...

How Many Ways Can the GOP Duck a Losing Convention? The Answer, McCain, Is Blowing in the Rain

Adam Nagourney writes in today's NY Times:

Mr. McCain and his advisers did not waste a minute in suggesting that his decision to scale back the festivities was evidence of the fact that Mr. McCain, given the choice between doing what is best for him and doing what is best for his country, did what was best for the country. (Even before the storm was on the radar screen, Mr. McCain’s advisers were planning to set that up as one of the big McCain-Obama contrasts.)

Even as convention organizers spent he weekend debating what to do as the storm’s approached, Mr. McCain went on television to announce that he was thinking of suspending the convention. He then flew to Mississippi for a tour of storm preparations and a news conference. And his aides suggested that he might dispense with coming here at all – remember Country First? – and address the gathering through a video link-up.
In short, he managed to control the day – and in the process, pushed the memory of Mr. Obama’s convention just a little more into the distance.

Coming in here, Mr. McCain was understandably concerned that his acceptance speech in the arena here on Thursday would be compared against the one Mr. Obama delivered last week in Denver. Whatever Mr. McCain’s strengths as a candidate, delivering compelling speeches to big audiences is not one of them. The storm might have done Mr. McCain a favor: Not only does it take a little pressure off of him, it gives him a chance to talk about something that has always been a weak suit: Domestic issues. And it provides him an opportunity to accomplish what is one his toughest tasks here: To distance himself from President Bush at a convention where Mr. Bush continues to be popular.

Finally, as has been frequently remarked, the storm accomplished something that Mr. McCain’s advisers could not: Disinvite President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney from speaking, at least on Monday night. Mr. McCain’s advisers had done what they would to lesson the impact of those speeches – they were slated to speak on Labor Day night, Mr. Cheney was to have spoken well before prime time, and Mr. McCain made sure he was nowhere near St. Paul when Mr. Bush took the stage – but they had long been resigned to the fact that they were handing the Democrats a gift.

Like a Hurri-McCain

Writing in today's New York Post, Rich Lowry offers this interesting take on the McCain/GOP response to Gustav: (http://www.nypost.com/seven/09012008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/a_perfect_storm_126979.htm?page=0)

So McCain, even though he's a mere presidential candidate, traveled to Mississippi to get a briefing from Gulf Coast governors and give as much of an impression of being a hands-on manager as he could as someone with no responsibility. McCain feels compelled to do everything he can to act like the un-Bush prior to the storm's landfall.

In pure political terms, Gustav probably freezes the race. With the Palin announcement on Friday, McCain appears to have capped Obama's bounce. The Democrat had been out to an 8-point lead in the Gallup tracking poll at the end of last week, but was back down to 6 yesterday. Now, unable to attack Obama at all or as harshly as they would've otherwise these next two days, Republicans lose the opportunity to drag his lead down further.

My take on the situation is that Gustav gives the Republicans four golden ops this week:

1. Bush and Cheney are sidelined and don't have to publicly make the case for why their administration was a success and that Johnny Mac deserves to pick up the torch. Update - Bush punted and spoke for 8 minutes by satellite
2. Cindy McCain and Laura Bush will speak Monday evening, reinforcing the GirlPower theme that the GOP has embraced since last Thursday morning when McCain picked Palin Update - low key talk by Cindy and Laura about helping Gustav refugees. Nice touch. But Laura's doesn't have to stand by her man.
3. McCain is now saying he may speak to the convention via satellite from the Gulf Coast. McCain is a notoriously poor orator in front of large crowds and speaking directly to a camera will represent him in a better light. Update - Gus fizzled, Johnny Mac's in da house
4. Palin will likely speak at the convention, but doesn't she look like McCain's granddaughter when she isn't standing next to him? Look for the pantsuit -- and expect her to lose the hoop earrings.

So, at worst the GOP freezes the election for a week. I heard a pundit say recently that a presidential campaign is a matter of winning weeks -- if you win more than the other guy, then you get to be president. Blunting Obama's convention with Palin, freezing the week by limiting exposure and damage from Minneapolis suggest that the GOP is settling in for a classic bout of Ali "rope a dope" -- get the Dems to go on the attack, show their hand and tack in a direction that uses their strengths against them.

And if, like me, you see strings extending upward to the pudgy hand of Karl Rove . . .

More on Palin from the RandomPolitik Fair and Balanced Department

Here is John Podhoretz writing about the Sarah Palin pick for Commentary Magazine online, August 31, 2008.

The twist-yourself-in-knots-to-oppose-Palin-on-grounds-of-inexperience exercise being indulged in by those otherwise ecstatic about Barack Obama and indifferent to his lack of experience is truly astounding to behold. It is leading them into some fascinating mistakes. For example, Andrew Sullivan – who is quickly displacing David Gergen as the most ideologically elastic person in the annals of recent history — this morning: “It’s the most irresponsible decision by any leading presidential candidate since Bush picked Quayle.”

The thing is, if you were going by “experience” as your guide, Dan Quayle was eminently qualified to be president according to the standards of our time, at least. He had been elected twice to the Senate and once to the House. He had drafted major domestic-policy legislation on job retraining, and was a leading light on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Quayle had served twelve years in Washington, which is what led to him accurately saying in debate that he had the same level of experience as John F. Kennedy when Kennedy was elected president (the line that set Lloyd Bentsen up to say, “Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.)

The problem with Quayle wasn’t that his resume was lousy. It wasn’t. He was, perhaps, the most politically accomplished 41 year-old in the United States at the time. It was that his behavior — first in his introductory appearance as Veep and then with the malapropisms that dogged him throughout his tenure in the White House — made him seem like a lightweight, and thereby called his judgment into question.

Judgment, comportment, the largeness that seems necessary to hold high office without questionable baggage — these are the qualities that matter. There are, recall, no Constitutional qualifications to occupy the presidency other than being 35 years of age and a native-born American. It is voters who determine the qualifications of their president, which is why having an arguments over experience is the sort of thing that delights those of us who spend our time traveling to conferences in other countries and reading foreign-policy journals, but means absolutely nothing to voters. Nor should it. If it did, Richard Holbrooke might be installed as president, or Bob Kagan.

Palin will be a failed pick if her conduct between now and November 4 reveals that she does not have the judgment to be a heartbeat away; that her comportment is not what we would wish of our leaders; and that she does not seem large enough for the office. A great many things will go into determining all of those things, as they are right now with Barack Obama — and, incidentally, John McCain, who has every qualification for the presidency one could imagine except that he hasn’t won an election for it yet.

The effort to pre-determine her unfitness is not only a losing proposition; there is something fundamentally foolish, about it. Even un-American, in the sense that it suggests rule by wonk rather than popular fiat. Ask Bill Clinton, who tried his best to make the case against Barack Obama and then stood on stage on Wednesday night explaining to America that people were saying about Barack Obama just what they had said about him, Bill Clinton, 16 years ago. That is what interesting elections do.

Governor Gidget's Mother (In-Law) Knows Best

In today's NY Daily News, Faye Palin admits that "she enjoys hearing Barack Obama speak, and still hasn't decided which way she'll vote." Says Palin, "I'm not sure what she brings to the ticket other than she's a woman and a conservative. Well, she's a better speaker than McCain," Faye Palin said with a laugh. "People will say she hasn't been on the national scene long enough. But I believe she's a quick study."

Read the full article here http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republican_race/2008/08/30/2008-08-30_sarah_palins_motherinlaw_uncertain_about.html

Gloomy Gus Threatens to Rain on the Parade

Well, its not only the Fox News (aka Völkischer Beobachter -- remember the Nazi newspaper "We Report, We Decide") pundits that are blowing hard after a topsy-turvy 48 hours since the Palin announcement. Looks like Hurricane Gustav is barrelling pell mell for the Gulf Coast in an eerie reminder of Katrina three years ago (almost to the day).

Kinda makes you think for a moment about whether there is another hand in all of this. So, without further adieu, my two cents from both sides of the equation.

God is a Democrat

Gustav will hit the Gulf Coast wreaking havoc and, despite Shrub's best effort to be on the ground, we will see Homeland Security botch the job yet again. This reinforces the "
McCain is Bush III" arguement.

God is a Republican

Gustav has already created three great ops for the GOP. One, Bush and Cheney get a pass on attending the convention and therefore do not speak -- and I for one was dying of curiosity as to how the planners were going to distance Bush from McCain. Two, Bush gets to actually look Presidential. Three, days before the convetion begins, McCain and Palin (The Geezer and Gidget) are on the ground down in the Gulf Coast while Obama and Biden are trolling for votes in Ohio.

Rush Sez Vote for Governor Babe

From http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/

Rush Limbaugh Show - February 28, 2008
BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Julie in Kodiak, Alaska.

CALLER: Good morning, Rush.

RUSH: Hi.

CALLER: Mega dittos from the last frontier, where the environment and the isolation creates naturally independent, strong, and conservative minds.

RUSH: Thank you very much. I like that.

CALLER: I was calling today because I heard on our statewide news that one of the running mates for McCain being considered would be our governor from the great state of Alaska.RUSH: Talked about this I think yesterday or the day before.

CALLER: Yeah. I think that it would create quite the paradox for your Drive-By Media. Our governor, Sarah Palin, is intellectual, she is --

RUSH: How do you pronounce her last name?

CALLER: Palin.

RUSH: Sarah Palin. Okay.

CALLER: Yep. She's been heralded throughout the state as being personable, likable, intelligent, strong, and conservative. And she crosses over from conservative to liberalism not in thought, but because she stands by what she believes in. And, surprisingly enough, she has been at the forefront of ethics reform in our great state --

RUSH: Yeah, plus she's a housewife, before that, she's a babe. I saw a picture.

CALLER: (laughing)

RUSH: Well, it's undeniable.

CALLER: Well, it is undeniable, and that's why the paradox is there for me. I think that because she's intelligent, number one, conservative maybe number one also, but she is photogenic, she is likable, she is engaging. When you meet her, she is interested in you, she speaks well.

RUSH: By the way, wait a second. I'm not diminishing any of those things by pointing out that she's a babe.

CALLER: Oh, no, no, no.

RUSH: The babe is the icing on the cake aspect, something the Democrats can't claim on their side.

CALLER: Exactly, especially when the highest Democrat that you can speak of is Mrs. Bill Clinton.

RUSH: You said it, not I. I just advanced the theory.

CALLER: Well, I can tell you that Governor Palin doesn't have to lift her chin up to 12 o'clock to get a good photo of her.

RUSH: I just love you. I love you, Julie. I love listening to women talk about other women like this.

CALLER: I am not berating Mrs. Bill Clinton, I am just --

RUSH: No, of course not. You are elevating Madam Palin.

CALLER: (laughing) Exactly.

RUSH: Absolutely.

CALLER: She can't take a bad picture not even from the back end.

RUSH: (laughing) She can't take a bad picture even from the back end. All of which you say is true. Her name has been thrown up there. She has four kids, I think she's 42 years old, very conservative. I don't know how serious it is, but her name has been thrown in the hopper out there. Look, Julie, I'm glad you called. Thanks much.