Live from the Volkischer Beobachter, Its Sean and Dick!

Watch Dick Morris make Sean Hannity's wheels fall off on this one. While he admits he's voting for McCain, Morris gives Senator Obama his objective due and reads the situation of the debate perfectly: right now, Americans see Wall Street tycoons as more of a threat to national security than Osama Bin Laden.

Letterman - Top Ten Things People Are Asking The McCain Campaign

A Week in Review

What a week!

Check out Frank Rich's Op Ed in today's NY Times. A cogent synopsis of John McCain's failings as a candidate and a leader.

Despite the pundits' view of Friday's debate as a draw, bottom line is that Obama won. Why? He more than held his own with McCain, demonstrating command of his facts, deftly batting down criticisms that Uncle Grumpy lobbed his way and, yes, looking every inch the President that we all need. More importantly, every news group that did polling or ran focus groups on the debated showed that independent voters tacked in Obama's direction. Bad news for McCain who has to win the majority of these voters.

More trouble for McCain. Polling from George Washington University (check it out here) shows that as of 9/26 -- before the debate -- that while McCain leads on dealing with terrorism, Obama leads on the economy. Most of the respondents said that their neighbor fundamentally wouldn't have trouble voting for an African-American candidate. This is key folks -- because that question is really asking the values of the respondent. Race is the elephant (donkey?) in the room and it appears that at this juncture, folks are checking that issue at the door because of concerns about the economy.

Oh yeah . . . almost forgot . . . Sarah Palin went on TV with Katie Couric and in less than 20 minutes passed Dan Quayle for the top spot on Dick Vitale's "All Total Moron VP Superstar" List. Check out the two clips in the post below.

Let's Party Like Its 1988: Back to the Future Baby!

Here's J. Danforth Quayle, Vice President. Check out the quote at 0:52



And here's Sarah Palin -- just a single clip. Compare here response to Quayle's quote at 0:52 above.



Kinda makes this guy look like Reagan.

Whoa - Palin Plays Rope a Dope with Couric . . . or is it the Other Way Around? You Be the Judge

Remember folks. She could be ONE 72 YEAR OLD HEARTBEAT AWAY from the comfy chair in the Oval Office.

Duck!!!!!!!

Hot off the press (after I finished closing a deal on a really nice new guitar off Craigslist) -- John McCain is making noises about ducking Debate #1 with Barack Obama citing his need to be in DC helping to wrap Christmas bonus bailout packages for Wall Street CEOs.

So far, Sen. Obama is not rising to the bait. Actually, the Senator has an excellent point that at a moment like this, the American people need to hear from the next President of the United States about what he will do, since Uncurious George is packin' china and pouring over blueprints for his Presidential library (I can't wait to visit that!).

My two-cents. The ploy will likely solidify Johnny Mac's standing with his core. Obama isnt trying to sway the Volkischer Beobachter (aka Fox TV) crowd to his corner. All the dude has to do is hold the Kerry states and add three. He's got Iowa and Virginia and Colorado are in play. So, from my end CNN and the other networks will call the stunt for what it is and Obama gets a national stage all to himself, with PBS' Jim Lehrer to boot. Might as well roll up a round table, a pitcher of water, Charlie Rose and turn it into a fundraiser!

Let Obama be Bartlet

Thanks to Maureen Dowd, some sage advice to Senator Obama from the most beloved president since FDR - Josiah Bartlet.

A Message from Barack Obama

Check In at the End of Topsy Turvy Week

Well, I've been on the road this week so not a lot of posts since the proverbial excrement impacted the air movement vehicle earlier this week. But certainly the key poll numbers are trending toward Obama for a plethora of reasons, likely chiefly Sen. McCain's inability to articulate what the hell is happening to our economy, much less what he would do about it.

Meanwhile,as I write the Bush Administration is mortaging $1 Trillion (you got it bucko) of our kids' future to bail out a few Wall Street firms that made colossally awful business decisions. Exactly what Reagan Republicans want to see -- the "gummit" stepping in to become significant shareholders in private enterprise. I hope that staunch Republicans have refreshened their swimming skills to ride out the flood of irony that should be engulfing them as we speak!

More to follow. Debate #1 is up on Friday!

A Strategy Update from Plouffe Daddy - September 17 2008

I McCain't Make This Up: Johnny Mac Clearly Knows Something About the Economy that Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and AIG Don't

Update 9/28: Frank Rich has a terrific op-ed in the NY Times. Here's a choice quote:

It was on Sept. 15 — the day after his former idol Alan Greenspan pronounced the current crisis a “once-in-a-century” catastrophe — that McCain reaffirmed for the umpteenth time that the “fundamentals of our economy are strong.” As recently as Tuesday he had not yet even read the two-and-a-half-page bailout proposal first circulated by Hank Paulson last weekend. “I have not had a chance to see it in writing,” he explained. (Maybe he was waiting for it to arrive by Western Union instead of PDF.)

TIME: Michael Grunwald Calls it Like He Sees It

Excellent article on the "elephant in the room" for Barack Obama -- the race issue. Are White independent voters willing to check their bias at the polling place door on November 4?

Watch This -- From our Buds at BraveNewPAC.org

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” - Joseph Goebbels, Nazi Minister of Propaganda

Cheney: "Palin" by Comparison with Sarah Barracuda

Today's NY Times has an article by Jo Becker, Peter Goodman and Michael Powell about Sarah Palin's political appointments and vendettas as Mayor of Wasilla and Governor of Alaska. Earlier this year, Pat Buchanan said that "John McCain makes Dick Cheney look like Gandhi." This article makes our current VP look like Bambi.

DeJa Vu -- Republicans Looking to Party Like its 2004

Feeling like old times folks? Check out Howard Fineman's article from MSNBC about the mistakes the Obama campaign is making.

I generally find that I agree with Fineman's points. That said, a couple of things on my mind.

First, Obama has a grassroots ground game that Kerry didn't in '04. Assuming they can turn out newly registered voters and the the Republican dirty tricks don't prevent too many of them from casting a ballot, then I am not sure how much the polls really tell us -- more than Republican voters, when confronted with an intellegent, young, self-confident African-American candidate will gladly check their brains at the door and vote for an aging American vet who has comprimised every core fiber of this being, including putting a total ditz one 72-year-old heartbeat away from the desk in the Oval Office.

Second, I think Obama's core voters are voting FOR him as opposed to AGAINST McCain. Remember, in '04 a lot (perhaps most) Dems didn't love Kerry as much as we hated Bush. Pollster Scott Rasmussen says election wins are driven by favorables -- that is, no one wins an election by getting folks to vote against the other guy.

Those points made, I agree with Fineman that Team Obama has to get their collective heads back in the game especially while there is time to do it.

News Flash - Palin Finds Iraq/9-11 Link

Speaking at a sendoff ceremony for son Track and his unit, heading for Baghdad and glory, Gov. Sarah Palin fresh from a cramming session with Charlie Gibson makes a link between the September 11 terror attacks and our God-given mission in Iraq:




Too bad Dick Cheney doesn't agree with her:



And, alas, neither does George W. Bush:

Why Sarah Can't Lead

Bob Herbert has a terrific op-ed piece in the September 12 NY Times on the Palin interview with Charlie Gibson. Less an interview, as one wag has put it, and more a tutorial between a rattled freshman and her faculty advisor.

Here's a choice moment.

Sound Familiar?

Quote James Carville: "If You Drag a Hundred Dollar Bill Through a Trailer Park . . . "

I didn't have good graphic to accompany this article about Governor Sarah Palin being ordered by a judge to cease and desist with the harassment of her brother-in-law (the one who used a taser on his 10 year old son). So I'm using this family in a fight on Jerry Springer for now -- until I find something more tasteless.

In the meantime -- here's a big shout out to the Palin Family for putting up with Mom's nonsense. If I were Mr. Palin, I'd be packing Piper, Trig, Bridget, the shotgun-wedding guy and Track on my boat and heading out with the Deadliest Catch fleet to get away from it all. C'mon -- who would you rather hang with: John McCain or Captain Sig?

Uh Oh

Writing this in real time -- literally, this was on CNBC about 5 minutes ago and now its on You Tube.

I think Joe Biden just committed a faux pas. Not that this was unexpected. But c'mon -- he just said that Clinton might have been a better VP pick than him!!!

A Big Unknown

I have been following a lot of the recent rash of polls that have revealed some surprising - and quite frankly -- disturbing trends for the Obama/Biden ticket. Though we have not gotten to the debates (which can be game changers) here is what I am reading:

• Obama appears to be losing votes among White voters. This is a very specific argument that Clinton made in the closing days of the primaries and her large margins in places like West Virginia or Kentucky are certainly a harbinger of this trend.
• Surprisingly, today's CNN Time polling reports that McCain is running strong in the suburbs of Detroit. Certainly the scandal with Mayor Kilpatrick -- an African-American leader -- likely didn't help. And doesn't Sarah Palin have a little of that Michigan "twang" going.
• Obama appears to be building a solid lead in Southwest Virginia (think Norfolk/Newport News) -- sizable African-American population there to be sure, but also a lot of military families (naval bases). But McCain is now running stronger in Norther Virginia, what was once a "bastion" of Obama support.
• McCain has regained some momentum in Missouri, as state that the Dems had hoped to put into play.

So, on paper, we appear to be heading back to the "Kerry/Bush" state divisions that marked the beginning of the campaign, which means that the "O" Team would have to tilt Ohio or Florida or a combination of a couple of smaller states to barely win this thing.

Now for the Big Unknown: new voters. What the press appear to be missing in all of this is the new voters registered by the Obama campaign during the primaries. These are younger and African-American voters - two demographic groups that often get missed during polls.

Now for the hard part: keeping this base energized and getting them to actually turn out at the polls.

Koch on Palin: "She Scares the Hell out of Me"

Ed Koch has endorsed Barack Obama saying Sarah Palin "scares the hell out of me." Koch, a longtime Democrat, has in recent years taking to endorsing the Republican party and its candidates. Although a Koch endorsement of Obama to New Yorkers is like endorsing A-Rod to Yankee fans, the blub from our colorful former mayor is worth a look.

Begala Weights In -- What to Expect Between September 9 and November 4

Paul Begala has an interesting piece on www.cnn.com about what to expect -- minus the unexpected -- between now and election day from both the McCain and Obama camps.

Check it out.

A Four Legged Stool Stands Between Sarah Palin and Learning What it Is that The VP Really Does

Charlie Cook, political consultant and columnist has written a very interesting article on the demographics of this year's presidential contest and how four consituencies hold the key to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. A good, brief read.

RandomPolitik Presents . . . MavericKam. Our First Installments

President McCain will take World Leaders and Geography for $500 . . .



The Fact Maverick Rides Again!


I Will Make Them Famous . . . if I Can Stay Alert Long Enough to Remember Them.

Seven Keys for the Next Seven Weeks

Politico has a very interesting article online today that gives a "50,000 foot" overview of seven keys to the election. Of course, politics are highly unpredictable, but the assertions here seem pretty reasonable to me.

In the meantime, I am nervous that Team Obama doesn't appear to be getting up off their collective asses and firing back at the Republicans, whom I fear are beginning to define the campaign message. Maybe they should heed Sean Connery's advice here:

This Just in from the Gates of Hell (While Waiting for the McCain/Osama Deathmatch)

The Boston Herald has an article today with Dick Cheney's thoughts on Sarah Palin. Worth a quick read.

That Old Feeling

Is it just me who is having that niggling 2004 deja vu feeling this morning? Lessee -- we've got the better candidate, the right platform, running against an incumbent party whose policies are, by and large, unpopular. And their post-convention bounce seems to have erased any momentum from our convention.

Nate Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com posted this interesting take on the Obama campaign's ad strategy.

Why Vote For a Celebrity?

Found this gem on You Tube to share with you all>

Tough Day - Need a Laugh

Well, several polls are showing that the GOP convention has given the Geezer/Gidget ticket a real boost -- leading in the Gallup Poll, tied in Rasmussen, marginally behind now in others.

This link is worth a review and a laugh. Enjoy!

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13213.html

The Maverick Saddles Up

Choosing a Running Mate: 101

The two clips below highlight the thinking in both campaigns about the choice of a running mate. Unfortunately, I couldn't find any video of Sen. McCain talking about his choice so I decided to go with his unofficial campaign advisor, Karl Rove.

Fellow POW Delivers a Ringing Endorsement of Sen. McCain

Karl Rove on Picking an Inexperienced Governor -- a Fair and Balanced Set of Opinions

This is so consistent with . . .

This . . .

Sarah Palin - Energy Czar

From this morning's London Daily Telegraph


The Republican presidential candidate will make his running mate the public face of the country's drive for energy independence, according to a McCain campaign official.
Mr McCain, whose selection of Mrs Palin has electrified Republican supporters, wants to capitalise on her expertise in the oil and gas sector while governor of Alaska. He believes that her record of taking on oil company chiefs will help convince the public that his government would not be in the pocket of energy fat cats, a perception that has damaged George W.Bush's poll ratings.

The move would give Mr McCain political cover to resume widespread domestic drilling for oil, even in areas of environmental fragility.

Mrs Palin backs drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), which Mr McCain has previously opposed. Should he decide to reverse that position he will use Mrs Palin to make the case that it is necessary.

The campaign official said: "The Democrats say that Governor Palin is inexperienced, but she has vast experience in the energy sector. She will be at the forefront of the push for energy independence. She's popular and she's very persuasive." A Republican Party official, who has discussed Mrs Palin's role with members of Mr McCain's team, added: "She can say: 'I'm from Alaska. I know all about this and I support drilling, even in ANWR."

Mr McCain discussed the role Mrs Palin would play in government as well as the election campaign when he held a three-hour getting-to-know-you session two weeks ago.
To assuage angry green activists, the prospective vice president will also be charged with overseeing a dramatic increase in federal support for the development of clean coal and electric car technology, as well as the spread of wind and solar power.

As Governor of Alaska, Mrs Palin oversaw the creation of a $40billion natural gas pipeline, against the wishes of the oil giants, and forced those same companies to relinquish licences to drill on land that they had left idle.

Mr McCain's support for drilling, which Democrats ridicule for offering little hope of quickly lowering fuel prices, enjoys overwhelming support from US voters.
During her speech last week, Mrs Palin said the Alaskan gas pipeline would "help lead America to energy independence".

She added: "The fact that drilling won't solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all. Starting in January, in a McCain-Palin administration, we're going to lay more pipelines... build more nuclear plants... create jobs with clean coal ... and move forward on solar, wind, geothermal and other alternative sources."

Clark Judge, who wrote speeches for President Ronald Reagan and now heads the White House Writers Group, a Washington public affairs company, said such an appointment would be a logical use of Mrs Palin's expertise and record of standing up to special interests.
"No one has more experience of getting oil out of the ground and to the market than Sarah Palin," he said. "It is the issue that most distinctively divides the two parties and it is one that has proved popular for Senator McCain.

"No political figure in the US has more experience of taking on privilege and vested interests than Sarah Palin."

Finding a substantial role for Mrs Palin is just one of Mr McCain's plans for government. Campaign officials say that Joe Lieberman, the independent democrat who spoke at the Republican convention on Tuesday night, has been promised a job in Mr McCain's cabinet.
Mr Lieberman is pencilled in to become Secretary of State or Defence Secretary in what insiders say will be a "government of national unity on foreign affairs".

Mr McCain has been seriously considering naming senior cabinet posts before the election, to emphasise the breadth and experience of his team and demonstrate that he plans to reach across the political aisle.

You Tell, 'Em Pat

Nixon/Reagan communications guru Pat Buchanan weighs in on Obama's Speech -- remember that event?

Imagine the McCain White House

President McCain tries to broker a peace between the Dems and Republicans. Later, coming in from a hard day in the West Wing, he and Cindy talk about the difficulties of life in the White House.

Sarah Palin at Church -- Praise the Lord and Pass the Pipeline

Dr. Phil(good) Speaks Tonight

Market Close as of 5:16 pm ET, September 04
Dow -344.65 (-2.99%)

Well, this is the setup for Johnny Mac's speech tonight. He'll spend a lot of time getting us to cogitate about how Osama Bin Laden wants to blow me up in my place of work (I work 3 blocks from the NY Stock Exchange) but forget that my 401K is being detonated by a war that is bleeding $10 Billion (where's Carl Sagan when I need him!) each month.

Look, I don't bear Sen. McCain any personal animosity. I have a lot of respect for his personal courage and I dont think there is anyone in DC (including Obama) that could carry his shoes when it comes to the individual courage department. But lets face it -- he's sold his soul to the very right wing devils he thundered against during the 2000 primaries. And for that, I don't respect him very much at all.

Here is some Double Talk Express with the Late Great Tim Russert

All in Agreement with Mayor Palin on Book Bans, Raise Your Hand

From today's Boston Herald, an article from the Anchorage Daily News.

WASILLA -- Back in 1996, when she first became mayor, Sarah Palin asked the city librarian if she would be all right with censoring library books should she be asked to do so.
According to news coverage at the time, the librarian said she would definitely not be all right with it. A few months later, the librarian, Mary Ellen Emmons, got a letter from Palin telling her she was going to be fired. The censorship issue was not mentioned as a reason for the firing. The letter just said the new mayor felt Emmons didn’t fully support her and had to go.

Emmons had been city librarian for seven years and was well liked. After a wave of public support for her, Palin relented and let Emmons keep her job.

It all happened 12 years ago and the controversy long ago disappeared into musty files. Until this week. Under intense national scrutiny, the issue has returned to dog her. It has been mentioned in news stories in Time Magazine and The New York Times [NYT] and is spreading like a virus through the blogosphere.

The stories are all suggestive, but facts are hard to come by. Did Palin actually ban books at the Wasilla Public Library?

Find out if she did here http://news.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1117009&srvc=2008campaign&position=6

Why Gidget Can't Count

From NBC News:

ST. PAUL, Minn. -- Mike Huckabee made the claim that Palin got more votes running for mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, than Joe Biden got running for president of the United States. For the record, Joe Biden got 79,754 total votes in the Democratic primaries.

As of the 2000 census, the population of Wasilla was 5,469. It has been reported at currently more than 9,000.That would mean, conservatively, the entire town of Wasilla would have had to have had a 100% turnout for nine years at 9,000 to top Biden's primary numbers.

The Word from Plouffe Daddy!

From David Plouffe to Barack's supporters:

Both Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin specifically mocked Barack's experience as a community organizer on the South Side of Chicago more than two decades ago, where he worked with people who had lost jobs and been left behind when the local steel plants closed.

Let's clarify something for them right now.

Community organizing is how ordinary people respond to out-of-touch politicians and their failed policies.

And it's no surprise that, after eight years of George Bush, millions of people have found that by coming together in their local communities they can change the course of history. That promise is what our campaign has been about from the beginning.Throughout our history, ordinary people have made good on America's promise by organizing for change from the bottom up.

Community organizing is the foundation of the civil rights movement, the women's suffrage movement, labor rights, and the 40-hour workweek. And it's happening today in church basements and community centers and living rooms across America.Meanwhile, we still haven't gotten a single idea during the entire Republican convention about the economy and how to lift a middle class so harmed by the Bush-McCain policies.

It's now clear that John McCain's campaign has decided that desperate lies and personal attacks -- on Barack Obama and on you -- are the only way they can earn a third term for the Bush policies that McCain has supported more than 90 percent of the time.

Taking it Easy with Dr. King

Did I hear Gov. Gidget say that being a small town mayor is "like being a community organizer -- but with actual responsibilities?"

And all these years I've been under the impression that Dr. King . . . or Ralph Reed for that matter . . . had real jobs.

Well, let's give her her due. Being Mayor of Wasilla, AK (pop. 9000) involves some actual responsibilities. Indeed, you have to manage a budget. Easy to do if you take your neighbor's tax money and use it to hire a lobbyist. I am sure Dr. King would have hired a lobbyist to help his cause -- except for the fact that J. Edgar Hoover had a little stronger voice in DC than he did.

And being Mayor of Wasilla meant you had to march in those holiday parades. Tough in an Alaska winter with the snow and ice pelting you. Certainly not as easy as marching across a bridge on a nice day -- with batons and bullets pelting you.

Hey, where do I sign up? I'd relish a cushy job like that!

Big Night for Governor Gidget

Some thoughts about tonight's upcoming speech from Gov. Sarah Palin at the GOP Convention.

First, I expect that she will include a gracious thank you for all Americans for standing by her and her family at a difficult time. I hope she especially thanks the NY Post -- that bastion of conservative common sense -- for outing the father of her 17 year old daughter's child in this morning' paper. Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes' family values are truly heartwarming. Update: no mention of the controversies. Her speechwriters handled this pretty deftly.

Second, expect a call out to Hillary but this time without the catcalls. Rest assured the floor generals in Minneapolis have prepped the crowd to cheer for Sen. Clinton -- in contrast to the boos that she got in Dayton on the "18 million cracks in the glass ceiling." Update: no Hillary mention. Good move on the speechwriters' part - don't want to diminish Gidget.

Third, expect her to list every maverick moment in her political career. Like the time she insisted on forcing the Elks to use Match Light charcoal vs. the hardwood coals at the Wasilla Caribou Day celebration. Update: Convincing mentions of taking on the big oil interests, Bridge to Nowhere. Too bad some if it wasn't true.

Fourth, don't expect her to mention the words "trooper," "pregnant," "lobbyist," "free-Alaska," "carwash," "Ted Stevens," "I was for the Bridge to Nowhere before I was against it," "Russia is my naughty neighbor," and "global warming is an act of a vengeful God interceding at the behest of Ralph Reed and James Dobson to wipe this planet clean except for a secret ark of true-believers living in a commune 55 miles north of Anchorage." Update: She raised the Bridge, but not her prior support of it. And she acknowledged that Russia has oil and gas --- and can be a little naughty with it.

Oughta be a hell of a good show. I'll check back in post speech with some updates. Update: Damn! No pantsuit.

(Lame) DUCK!!!!!!!

Thanks to Hurricane Gustav, John McCain got his wish -- putting a half a continent between himself and W. The fizzling storm in the Gulf Coast provided ample cover for Bush to duck the GOP's dwindled affair in Minneapolis, opting to ride out the storm from the cozy confines of the White House.

What might be missed by the media is that, according to my exhaustive research (okay -- 10 minutes on Google), Bush appears to be the first sitting president to skip his party's convention since Lyndon Johnson. Hmmm . . . Texas politician, accidental president, unpopular war . . .

Anyway, what we know is that Bush remains popular with many elements on the GOP right. Do they interpret an 8-minute speech as "damnation with faint praise?" Do they see a repudiation of an 8-year agenda that has saddled our nation with crippling debt, an alarming loss of world prestige, and a government eviscerated by the appointment of unqualified cronies ("Yer doin' a heckuva job, Brownie!")?

Looking forward to the Palin speech tonight. For my part, I am not happy with the way the media has jumped on the "Bristol is pregnant" news. And this is the right wing media, folks. Although, they are fully reporting the story -- to the point where the NY Post outed the father by name -- it is being couched in terms of how "awful the Dems are to raise such an issue."

An Obama Bounce at Last?

Hell yes! We may have the damn Yankees . . . er, Republicans on the run! Go check out Nate at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ for some good analysis of the numbers.

Nate sez:

A large number of national polls have come out within the past 24-48 hours, most of which had conducted a survey close enough to the beginning of the Democratic convention to provide for a direct comparison.

These polls show Obama having gained between 2 and 8 points since before the convention began, or an average of 4.4 points. Although this is slightly below the average convention bounce of 6 points, it is a pretty reasonable result considering that the Republicans had named their VP candidate immediately following the Democratic convention, a circumstance which had never occurred before. Moreover, the internals of these polls show Obama gaining ground among Clinton supporters, a group of votes that John McCain is likely to have a difficult time getting back.(Note: I have not included the Zogby Interactive poll in the survey above -- this was the same poll that had Obama winning Arizona, and winning North Carolina by 8 points. But it is "officially" included for purposes of our model).

Still, it is imperative for Democrats not to get too giddy. A bounce is usually just a bounce, and the Republicans will have three nights of rebuttal tonight through Thursday to attempt to generate some momentum of their own. The Republicans rallied the base with the selection of Sarah Palin; having done so, they need to find messaging during their convention that will appeal to moderates and independents.
There's More...

-- Nate at 1:41 PM 163 Comments...

How Many Ways Can the GOP Duck a Losing Convention? The Answer, McCain, Is Blowing in the Rain

Adam Nagourney writes in today's NY Times:

Mr. McCain and his advisers did not waste a minute in suggesting that his decision to scale back the festivities was evidence of the fact that Mr. McCain, given the choice between doing what is best for him and doing what is best for his country, did what was best for the country. (Even before the storm was on the radar screen, Mr. McCain’s advisers were planning to set that up as one of the big McCain-Obama contrasts.)

Even as convention organizers spent he weekend debating what to do as the storm’s approached, Mr. McCain went on television to announce that he was thinking of suspending the convention. He then flew to Mississippi for a tour of storm preparations and a news conference. And his aides suggested that he might dispense with coming here at all – remember Country First? – and address the gathering through a video link-up.
In short, he managed to control the day – and in the process, pushed the memory of Mr. Obama’s convention just a little more into the distance.

Coming in here, Mr. McCain was understandably concerned that his acceptance speech in the arena here on Thursday would be compared against the one Mr. Obama delivered last week in Denver. Whatever Mr. McCain’s strengths as a candidate, delivering compelling speeches to big audiences is not one of them. The storm might have done Mr. McCain a favor: Not only does it take a little pressure off of him, it gives him a chance to talk about something that has always been a weak suit: Domestic issues. And it provides him an opportunity to accomplish what is one his toughest tasks here: To distance himself from President Bush at a convention where Mr. Bush continues to be popular.

Finally, as has been frequently remarked, the storm accomplished something that Mr. McCain’s advisers could not: Disinvite President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney from speaking, at least on Monday night. Mr. McCain’s advisers had done what they would to lesson the impact of those speeches – they were slated to speak on Labor Day night, Mr. Cheney was to have spoken well before prime time, and Mr. McCain made sure he was nowhere near St. Paul when Mr. Bush took the stage – but they had long been resigned to the fact that they were handing the Democrats a gift.

Like a Hurri-McCain

Writing in today's New York Post, Rich Lowry offers this interesting take on the McCain/GOP response to Gustav: (http://www.nypost.com/seven/09012008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/a_perfect_storm_126979.htm?page=0)

So McCain, even though he's a mere presidential candidate, traveled to Mississippi to get a briefing from Gulf Coast governors and give as much of an impression of being a hands-on manager as he could as someone with no responsibility. McCain feels compelled to do everything he can to act like the un-Bush prior to the storm's landfall.

In pure political terms, Gustav probably freezes the race. With the Palin announcement on Friday, McCain appears to have capped Obama's bounce. The Democrat had been out to an 8-point lead in the Gallup tracking poll at the end of last week, but was back down to 6 yesterday. Now, unable to attack Obama at all or as harshly as they would've otherwise these next two days, Republicans lose the opportunity to drag his lead down further.

My take on the situation is that Gustav gives the Republicans four golden ops this week:

1. Bush and Cheney are sidelined and don't have to publicly make the case for why their administration was a success and that Johnny Mac deserves to pick up the torch. Update - Bush punted and spoke for 8 minutes by satellite
2. Cindy McCain and Laura Bush will speak Monday evening, reinforcing the GirlPower theme that the GOP has embraced since last Thursday morning when McCain picked Palin Update - low key talk by Cindy and Laura about helping Gustav refugees. Nice touch. But Laura's doesn't have to stand by her man.
3. McCain is now saying he may speak to the convention via satellite from the Gulf Coast. McCain is a notoriously poor orator in front of large crowds and speaking directly to a camera will represent him in a better light. Update - Gus fizzled, Johnny Mac's in da house
4. Palin will likely speak at the convention, but doesn't she look like McCain's granddaughter when she isn't standing next to him? Look for the pantsuit -- and expect her to lose the hoop earrings.

So, at worst the GOP freezes the election for a week. I heard a pundit say recently that a presidential campaign is a matter of winning weeks -- if you win more than the other guy, then you get to be president. Blunting Obama's convention with Palin, freezing the week by limiting exposure and damage from Minneapolis suggest that the GOP is settling in for a classic bout of Ali "rope a dope" -- get the Dems to go on the attack, show their hand and tack in a direction that uses their strengths against them.

And if, like me, you see strings extending upward to the pudgy hand of Karl Rove . . .