- To President-Elect Barack Obama. Nice ring to it, eh?
- To Senator McCain, for giving us a glimpse of the better angels of his nature through some bitter disappointment last evening.
- To Senator Joe Biden for finally getting the right job. He's gonna be a fine VP.
- To Governor Sarah Palin for becoming a cultural icon courtesy of Tina Fey.
- The American people. Makes you feel some faith in the system. And one another.
- To my hometown folks, for soldiering through the Turf Wars.
- To Nostrasleehrat, who appears to have called the election on the nose in the Electoral College a couple of days ago but who recast the map to show Barack with fewer wins. Oh me of little faith.
- To Dottie Foote and Herb Gulatt of Mount Airy, who I trust voted their hopes and not their fears
- To Garland Smith of Mount Airy, for his foresight in predicting the end of days that are clearly upon us all. If liberals threaten to move to Canada -- the whitest country on planet Earth -- when a Republican wins, where will Garland move? Last time I checked, a native African was running South Africa and it costs $55 for a six-pack of Schlitz in Iceland. Danish anyone?
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
RandomSleehrat Musings - 20 Hours Later and Counting
Some congrats in order:
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
GW Battleground - Final Poll
The GW Battleground poll has been a pretty accurate predictor in the past. Link here for the result.
Key: Obama ticked up from 49% to 50%. McCain is at 44% with 6% undecided. One percent of undecideds breaking to Obama gives him the popular vote.
But does it give him the win? Ask Al Gore.
But first -- get out there and vote!!!!!
Key: Obama ticked up from 49% to 50%. McCain is at 44% with 6% undecided. One percent of undecideds breaking to Obama gives him the popular vote.
But does it give him the win? Ask Al Gore.
But first -- get out there and vote!!!!!
Final Picks
Well, my final call has tightened things up a little. Given that NC has 42% early voting and how Kay Hagan is tracking in the polls, I am going to leave that one in Obama's column. Hedging my bets a little, but I am feeling like McCain will pick off Ohio but that Obama will hang onto Pennsylvania.
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
Monday, November 3, 2008
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Sleehrat Predicts -
Here is my call as of Sunday, November 1 10:30 AM ET. Check back Monday evening for an update as I will review polling data Monday afternoon and make an updated prediction.
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Nate Silver, Nostradamus of Polls, Sez . ..
Nate Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com, who runs one of the best metapoll sites on the net and is oft interviewed and quoted in the press has this to say about the final landscape and "strategery" for the Obama and McCain campaigns. It gives us something to watch for on Tuesday evening between poll closings, beers and plates of nachos.
This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada.
Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating somewhere between 300-400 electoral votes. The electoral math will matter very little.We can probably assume, however, that IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT), McCain will edge out a victory in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri; put those states in the McCain column for the time being.
Likewise, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa all appear safe for Obama, even in the case of significant tightening. Put those in the Obama column. That leaves our five states in play. The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:
1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada
*2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.
(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)
Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:
1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada
That's basically what it comes down to, although I'm sure each campaign would claim that there are a larger number of states in play.*-*
Sorry to get off on such a tangent about this; I wanted to talk, for a change, about something other than whether the POLLS ARE TIGTHENING (!!!) or not. But as to that question, the evidence is again somewhat mixed. Contrary to other recent days, Obama gained ground in the national trackers on average, picking up points in Research 2000, Gallup and Rasmussen. The Zogby that Matt Drudge went on about turned out to be the only poll where he lost ground, while ABC/Post, IPD/TIPP and Hotline held steady. However, our model does perceive about a point's worth of tightening in the state polls. And the Pennslyvania polls have probably tightened by more than one point, although it is important to note that the four polls that show the state in the mid- single digits (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, ARG and Strategic Vision) have all had Republican leans so far this cycle. Pennsylvania is still an extreme long shot for John McCain -- Obama is more likely to win Arizona than McCain the Keystone -- just not quite the long-shot that it had looked like a couple of days ago.
As a final word of warning, proceed cautiously with any polls that were in the field last night. Friday nights are difficult enough to poll, and holidays are difficult enough to poll, but when a Friday night coincides with a holiday (in this case, Halloween), getting an appropriate sample is all but impossible.
This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada.
Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating somewhere between 300-400 electoral votes. The electoral math will matter very little.We can probably assume, however, that IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT), McCain will edge out a victory in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri; put those states in the McCain column for the time being.
Likewise, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa all appear safe for Obama, even in the case of significant tightening. Put those in the Obama column. That leaves our five states in play. The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:
1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada
*2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.
(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)
Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:
1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada
That's basically what it comes down to, although I'm sure each campaign would claim that there are a larger number of states in play.*-*
Sorry to get off on such a tangent about this; I wanted to talk, for a change, about something other than whether the POLLS ARE TIGTHENING (!!!) or not. But as to that question, the evidence is again somewhat mixed. Contrary to other recent days, Obama gained ground in the national trackers on average, picking up points in Research 2000, Gallup and Rasmussen. The Zogby that Matt Drudge went on about turned out to be the only poll where he lost ground, while ABC/Post, IPD/TIPP and Hotline held steady. However, our model does perceive about a point's worth of tightening in the state polls. And the Pennslyvania polls have probably tightened by more than one point, although it is important to note that the four polls that show the state in the mid- single digits (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, ARG and Strategic Vision) have all had Republican leans so far this cycle. Pennsylvania is still an extreme long shot for John McCain -- Obama is more likely to win Arizona than McCain the Keystone -- just not quite the long-shot that it had looked like a couple of days ago.
As a final word of warning, proceed cautiously with any polls that were in the field last night. Friday nights are difficult enough to poll, and holidays are difficult enough to poll, but when a Friday night coincides with a holiday (in this case, Halloween), getting an appropriate sample is all but impossible.
In Memoriam, John McCain
Regardless of the outcome on November 4, this fall America lost one of its original, independent political voices as Senator John McCain succumbed to hardrightwingitis.
You may ask, what is hardrightwingitis? It is an insidious disorder, common to Republicans running for public office at a national level, to surrender their principles and common sense to the far right wing of the party in hopes of "solidfying the base."
What makes hardrightwingits a difficult condition to assess is that in some instances its outcome is successful for the afflicted. This happens in times of relative national prosperity and security when elemental symptoms -- such as agreement with anti-abortion, anti-gay, pro-conservative Christian issues -- can position the victim as victor.
In the case of Senator McCain, his bout with hardrightwingits came as the wheels were falling off US prestige and prosperity. He accepted the diagnosis of a team of specialists trained by Karl Rove (aka The Architect) that he must pander to extreme elements of the Party in order to maintain a base of support necessary to win an election. A second opinion would have revealed to the patient that if he were to actually run on his record as one who had collaborated with Russell Feingold on campaign finance reform, Ted Kennedy on immigration and had, in 2000, energized moderate Democrats by standing up to religious extremists (Farrakhan on the left, Falwell on the right), he might win the election and, if not, lose with some measure of dignity.
Perhaps the most fatal move was the selection of untested, unknown Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. A favorite of extreme right leaning pundits from Bob Grant to Rush Limbaugh, Palin revealed herself to be, in short order, a featherweight in a tempest. If Senator McCain had followed his initial instincts -- Sen. Joe Lieberman or former Homeland Security Director and Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge -- for a running mate, he would have made stronger inroads with undecided voters and have positioned himself competitively in key states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Since this posting is being written prior to election day, I do not presume the outcome to necessarily be a poor one for the Arizona Senator. But if he does miraculously effect a Trumanesque comeback and win, he will enter the White House with a reputation severely tarnished by vicious attacks on his opponent, Senator Barack Obama, and with a Vice President in tow who is considered by nearly 6 in 10 Americans to be poorly equipped to take over the Presidency and who, in the waning days of the campaign, distanced herself from Senator McCain on issues and opinions of campaign tactics.
You may ask, what is hardrightwingitis? It is an insidious disorder, common to Republicans running for public office at a national level, to surrender their principles and common sense to the far right wing of the party in hopes of "solidfying the base."
What makes hardrightwingits a difficult condition to assess is that in some instances its outcome is successful for the afflicted. This happens in times of relative national prosperity and security when elemental symptoms -- such as agreement with anti-abortion, anti-gay, pro-conservative Christian issues -- can position the victim as victor.
In the case of Senator McCain, his bout with hardrightwingits came as the wheels were falling off US prestige and prosperity. He accepted the diagnosis of a team of specialists trained by Karl Rove (aka The Architect) that he must pander to extreme elements of the Party in order to maintain a base of support necessary to win an election. A second opinion would have revealed to the patient that if he were to actually run on his record as one who had collaborated with Russell Feingold on campaign finance reform, Ted Kennedy on immigration and had, in 2000, energized moderate Democrats by standing up to religious extremists (Farrakhan on the left, Falwell on the right), he might win the election and, if not, lose with some measure of dignity.
Perhaps the most fatal move was the selection of untested, unknown Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. A favorite of extreme right leaning pundits from Bob Grant to Rush Limbaugh, Palin revealed herself to be, in short order, a featherweight in a tempest. If Senator McCain had followed his initial instincts -- Sen. Joe Lieberman or former Homeland Security Director and Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge -- for a running mate, he would have made stronger inroads with undecided voters and have positioned himself competitively in key states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Since this posting is being written prior to election day, I do not presume the outcome to necessarily be a poor one for the Arizona Senator. But if he does miraculously effect a Trumanesque comeback and win, he will enter the White House with a reputation severely tarnished by vicious attacks on his opponent, Senator Barack Obama, and with a Vice President in tow who is considered by nearly 6 in 10 Americans to be poorly equipped to take over the Presidency and who, in the waning days of the campaign, distanced herself from Senator McCain on issues and opinions of campaign tactics.
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